International News 12/09
-
OPEC cuts global oil demand growth projections in 2024 and 2025
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has once again revised its forecast for global oil demand growth. The producer group has revised its expectations for 2024, citing data received thus far in the current year. This marks the second consecutive revision made by OPEC. The revised forecast indicates that global oil demand will increase by 2.03 million barrels per day in 2024, representing a decrease from the previous estimate of 2.11 million barrels per day. There has been a divergence of opinion among forecasters regarding the strength of oil demand growth, particularly in relation to China and the global transition to cleaner fuels. Despite the reduction, OPEC's estimate remains at the higher end of industry forecasts. The report also indicates that although China's economic growth is anticipated to remain robust, challenges in the real estate sector and the rising adoption of LNG trucks and electric vehicles may influence diesel and gasoline demand. Furthermore, OPEC has revised its 2025 global demand growth estimate, reducing it to 1.74 million barrels per day.
China's Imports Fall, Copper Prices Get More Depressed
A decline in copper prices has been observed in response to mounting concerns about China's economic outlook. The country's crude copper imports have reached a 16-month low, resulting in a 0.4% decline in the three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) to $9,063.50 per metric ton. However, the most-traded October copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) closed at a 1.4% gain, at 73,110 yuan ($10,268.40) per ton, following gains in London. The weak economic conditions in China, including depressed consumer spending and a surplus of unsold property, have had an impact on the commodity market. Nevertheless, Dan Smith, head of research at Amalgamated Metal Trading, maintains that the outlook for base metals is not entirely pessimistic. He cites the robust performance of the electronics and solar PV sectors in China as a positive indicator, and anticipates a moderate increase in copper prices over the coming months, with a projected close for the year at around $9,500 per ton.
https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/impor-china-turun-harga-tembaga-makin-tertekan
BMW shares plummet to almost 2-year low, here's why
BMW has cut its profit margin forecasts for 2024 due to weak demand in China and problems with brake systems supplied by Continental. The news sent BMW shares to their lowest level in almost two years. Both BMW and Continental shares fell by around 9%, making them the biggest losers on Germany's DAX index and putting pressure on European car stocks. The delivery delays related to the braking system will have a negative impact on sales in the second half of the year, affecting more than 1.5 million vehicles. While 1.2 million vehicles have been delivered to customers and can be checked for faults via over-the-air software, a further 320,000 vehicles have yet to be delivered. BMW expects warranty costs in the third quarter to be in the high three-digit million euro range. In addition, BMW now expects a profit margin of 6% to 7% in 2024, down from 8% to 10% previously, and a slight decline in vehicle deliveries in the same year. Continental did not provide any further details.