International News 08/10

October 08, 2024 No. 172

China Outpaces Japan as Global LNG Leader.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast that China will retain its position as the world's leading purchaser of liquefied natural gas (LNG) over the coming years, driven by robust industrial demand. Japan, previously the largest purchaser of LNG, has experienced a decline in demand due to the reactivation of nuclear reactors, the increased use of renewable energy sources, and a challenging economic environment. China's natural gas demand increased by 10% in the first eight months of this year, with a projected further growth of 16% by 2025. The surge in demand is primarily driven by the industrial sector. China has both the capability to produce its own natural gas and the option of importing it through pipelines and terminals. Furthermore, the IEA anticipates that India's gas demand will increase by approximately 9% in 2019 and 8% by 2025, driven by the need for more energy to support economic expansion and consumption in the transportation sector. The IEA also highlights potential risks associated with Russian gas transit through Ukraine, noting that without a new transit agreement, LNG imports by Europe will rise, leading to tighter global gas balances by 2025.

Ekspansi Besar, Permintaan Gas Alam China dan India Diramal Melesat (kontan.co.id)

 

German Economic Resilience Tested: Orders Take a Hit.

There are indications that the German economy is approaching a period of weakness, with industrial orders in the country showing a decline that has prompted concerns about the possibility of a recession. New orders fell by 5.8% on a monthly basis in August 2024, according to official data from the federal statistics agency Destatis. This figure was significantly larger than the forecasted 1.8% decline. The decline in orders is believed to be a result of the manufacturing sector being adversely affected by higher energy costs due to the war in Ukraine and decreased demand from abroad. Consequently, leading economic institutions have revised their forecasts and anticipate that the German economy will either stagnate or contract slightly in 2024. The economy ministry has stated that a recovery in the industrial economy in the second half of 2024 is unlikely due to persistently weak demand and declining corporate sentiment.

Ancaman Resesi Melanda Ekonomi Terbesar Eropa, Ada Apa? (cnbcindonesia.com)

 

Asia-Pacific Markets Rally Ahead of Central Bank Decisions.

The Asia-Pacific markets saw gains, led by Japan's Nikkei, as investors anticipated interest rate decisions from three central banks in the region. This week, the Bank of Korea (BoK), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be announcing their decisions. Analysts anticipate that the Bank of Korea and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will reduce interest rates, while the Reserve Bank of India is expected to maintain its current stance. It is anticipated that the BoK will lower its benchmark rate from 3.5% to 3.25%, while the RBNZ is expected to implement a 50 basis point cut to 4.75%. In August, the RBNZ surprised economists with a rate cut from 5.5% to 5.25%. While most markets in the region rose, South Korea's Kospi declined, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) futures were lower.

Nikkei Pimpin Kenaikan Pasar Asia Pasifik Jelang Keputusan 3 Bank Sentral (investor.id)