Rupiah Strengthens: Market Awaits Fed Decision.

On October 14, 2024, the Indonesian rupiah demonstrated a notable gain against the US dollar as market participants awaited further insights on US interest rates from speeches by Federal Reserve officials. The rupiah exchange rate between banks in Jakarta saw a 12-point improvement, reaching Rp 15,565.5 per US dollar compared to the previous close at Rp 15,597.5. Market participants are monitoring indications of US interest rates, with expectations for a rate cut in November 2024 remaining in place. There is a strong possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, particularly in light of recent data indicating higher-than-anticipated inflation and labor market readings. Additionally, China's economy is facing challenges due to mixed signals regarding fiscal stimulus. The Ministry of Finance in China has outlined plans for fiscal support, including increased debt issuance and aid for provincial governments, but no specific details have been provided.

Rupiah Menguat Tipis, Pidato Pejabat The Fed Jadi Fokus Pekan ini (investor.id)

OPEC Lowers Forecast for Global Oil Demand.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its projections for global oil demand in 2024, reducing its forecasts for the upcoming year. This marks the third consecutive revision from OPEC. The organization's monthly report indicates that world oil demand is anticipated to increase by 1.93 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, a reduction from last month's estimate of 2.03 million bpd. Analysts hold divergent views on demand growth in 2024, largely due to uncertainties surrounding China's demand and the global transition to cleaner fuels. The revised projection from OPEC still falls towards the higher end of industry estimates. China is the primary driver of the current year's decline in demand, with OPEC reducing its estimate of Chinese demand from 650,000 bpd to 580,000 bpd. OPEC anticipates that government stimulus measures in China will support fourth-quarter demand, which has been affected by an economic slowdown and the shift towards cleaner fuels. Furthermore, OPEC has revised its forecast for demand growth in August.

OPEC Kembali Pangkas Proyeksi Permintaan Minyak di 2024 dan 2025 (kontan.co.id)

China Stimulus Not Enough to Overcome Deflation: Economists.

The Chinese government is implementing a series of economic stimulus measures to support growth, including initiatives to bolster the property sector and address the debt burdens of local governments. However, economists have expressed reservations about the efficacy of these measures in overcoming deflation. At a recent press conference, Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fo'an did not disclose the value of the fiscal stimulus. However, he indicated that details would be revealed when the legislature meets in the coming weeks. The support measures announced thus far do not indicate that the government views an acceleration in consumption as a priority, despite the fact that many economists believe this is a crucial factor in economic recovery. Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas SA, has stated that the government's policies to support public consumption growth appear to be insufficient. She has also commented that it is too early to expect a significant change in deflationary pressure or a decline in the property market, which are the key issues facing the Chinese economy.

Kala Guyuran Stimulus Dinilai Tak Cukup Selamatkan China dari Jurang Deflasi (bisnis.com)