Global Risks Threatening Southeast Asian Economies.

The end of 2024 and into 2025 will bring three key risks that will impact Southeast Asian economies and markets. Firstly, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has the potential to increase geopolitical risks and lead to higher energy prices. Secondly, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding China's massive stimulus measures and whether they will prove sufficient to boost the country's economy. In addition, the US presidential election on November 5th represents a significant source of uncertainty that could affect a number of key economic variables, including the US economy, the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, interest rates, and the US dollar. This outcome will also have an impact on Southeast Asian economies. While polls indicate a narrow lead for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the popular vote, the results will be determined by decisive states with very close votes. Therefore, it is too early to predict the election results. Additionally, Trump's policies have prompted discussions about their potential inflationary impact.

Opini: Pilpres Amerika Serikat, Kebijakan yang diusulkan Trump Berisiko Bikin Inflasi Lebih Tinggi

Oil Stabilizes Ahead of US Election: OPEC+ Delays Production Hikes, Investors Wait for Global Political Clarity.

Oil prices remained within a narrow trading range on Tuesday (5/11) as investors awaited the outcome of the closely contested US presidential election. Prices had risen more than 2% in the previous session on the back of OPEC+ postponing plans to raise production in December. The announcement from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, to delay production hikes for a month from December has provided support to oil prices. Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, stated that risk-taking remains limited due to the upcoming week's agenda, which includes the US election, a Federal Reserve policy meeting, and China's National People's Congress (NPC) meeting. These events are likely to keep many traders on the sidelines. In October, OPEC oil production rebounded as Libya resumed production. However, Iraq's continued efforts to fulfill its commitments to the broader OPEC+ alliance constrained the gains.

Harga Minyak Bergerak di Kisaran Sempit Jelang Pengumuman Hasil Pemilu AS

Dollar Strengthens After US Election: Market Reaction to Fed Policy and Global Rate Hike Predictions.

Following the election of US President Donald Trump, the US dollar has weakened against the euro. Despite a decrease in interest rates and inflation, the dollar has appreciated by 0.76% against the euro since the election. The dollar index has remained stable at US$103.91, while the euro has reached $1,091.45. Additionally, the pound has appreciated by 0.18% against the dollar since the election. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of Australia have all indicated that an increase of 25 basis points in interest rates is likely. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, while the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia are expected to maintain a stable inflation rate. Analysts anticipate that the dollar will appreciate to $0.6589, up from its current level of $0.6537.

Dolar AS Tertekan Saat Pilpres AS, Pasar Antisipasi Kemenangan Kamala?