Trump's Re-election and the Federal Reserve's Shifting Rate Cuts.

The re-election of Donald Trump as US President is expected to impact the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The potential for new Trump policies to boost the economy and combat slowing inflation suggests that the Fed may adopt a slower rate cut path. At the conclusion of their two-day policy meeting on November 7th, 2024, US central bankers are currently projected to cut the Fed's benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point, bringing it to a range of 4.50%-4.75%. Futures contracts linked to the Fed's interest rate policy also indicate an expected rate cut in December, although with slightly less certainty than previously due to the central bank adjusting borrowing costs against inflation nearing its 2% target and a weakening labor market. The latest market expectations are that the Federal Reserve will implement two further interest rate cuts in 2025, reducing the policy rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% by July. This shift could have significant implications for businesses and households seeking to refinance debt or acquire new loans, resulting in rates that are one percentage point lower than in the past.

Laju Pemangkasan Suku Bunga The Fed Diramal Melambat usai Trump jadi Presiden AS

China's Exports Explode in October: Anticipation of Trump Tariffs Triggers Drastic Rise.

In October, Chinese exports saw the most rapid growth in over two years, as manufacturers rushed to ship goods to key markets in anticipation of additional tariffs from the United States and the European Union. In light of President-elect Donald Trump's potential imposition of significant tariffs on imports from China, Chinese manufacturers have accelerated their export activities. In October, exports from China grew by 12.7%, exceeding economists' expectations of a 5.2% increase. However, there was a 2.3% decline in imports during the same period. Analysts anticipate that this practice of front-loading exports will persist throughout the fourth quarter, with the full impact of tariffs being felt in 2025. Trade data from South Korea and Taiwan indicated a decline in global demand, while German manufacturers reported difficulties in identifying international buyers. The prospect of a trade war between major economies remains a significant concern for global trade.

Ekspor China Tumbuh Pesat di Tengah Kekhawatiran Tarif dari AS dan Uni Eropa

Fed Cautious in Lowering Interest Rates: Impact on US Economy and Rupiah Volatility.

Analysts anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will proceed with greater caution when reducing the Federal Funds Rate (FFR). Reny Eka Putri, a senior economist at Bank Mandiri, believes that the US central bank is adopting a cautious approach to its benchmark interest rate cuts. It is anticipated that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will implement a more cautious 25 basis point cut at its upcoming meeting. This cautious stance is driven by the need to balance inflationary pressures in the US with the slowing labor market. The market currently anticipates a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate reduction in November. Prior to implementing a reduction in interest rates, the Fed will conduct a detailed assessment of economic indicators, including GDP growth, inflation, employment figures, and consumer spending in the United States. The timing of the interest rate cut will have an impact on financial market conditions and future volatility of the rupiah.

Ekonom Perkirakan The Fed Lebih Hati-hati Turunkan FFR