Trump's Re-election: Tariffs and the Economic Impact on Asia-Pacific.

The re-election of Donald Trump as US President and the potential victory of the Republican Party in gaining a majority in the US Senate and House of Representatives will have a significant impact on US economic policy and the Asia-Pacific region. Moody's Analytics Senior Economist Stefan Angrick has indicated that the implementation of Trump's campaign promises, including high tariffs, stricter immigration policies, and changes to fiscal rules, could have a detrimental impact on Asia-Pacific economies. The implementation of higher import tariffs by the US represents the most significant risk to Asia-Pacific countries, given that the majority of their exports are destined for the US and are a key driver of regional growth. Trump has proposed tariffs of 10% or 20% overall, 60% on imports from China, and 100% on certain products. These tariffs would increase the cost of exports and reduce shipment volumes for Asia-Pacific countries. This will have a detrimental effect on business confidence, particularly among manufacturers, and will also result in increased trade friction. It is imperative that Asia-Pacific countries prepare for these potential challenges and develop strategies to mitigate their impact.

Trump Kembali Jadi Presiden AS, Ekonomi Asia Pasifik Bakal Bergejolak

China Faces Foreign Investment Decline Amid Geopolitical Tensions.

Despite the Chinese government's efforts to stabilize growth with stimulus measures, foreign investors have been pulling more money out of China in the third quarter of 2024, indicating a prevailing sense of pessimism. According to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China's direct investment in its balance of payments declined by $8.1 billion in the third quarter of 2024. The foreign direct investment (FDI) index in China has experienced a decline of nearly $13 billion over the course of the first nine months of the year. The decline in foreign investment is attributed to geopolitical tensions, pessimism toward China's economy, and increased competition from domestic companies in sectors like automobiles. Should this trend persist, it would represent the first annual net outflow of FDI since at least 1990. A number of companies, including Nissan Motor Co., Volkswagen AG, Konica Minolta Inc., and Nippon Steel Corp., have reduced their operations in China this year.

China Dibayangi Outflow Investor Asing dan Perlambatan Inflasi, Butuh Stimulus Lebih?

US Deportation Policy and Trump’s Tariffs: Uncertain Economic Impact Ahead.

The potential deportation of foreign-born workers in the United States could have an impact on businesses, but the overall effect on inflation and the economy remains uncertain. Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, indicated that if companies in sectors like agriculture or manufacturing were to lose employees due to deportation, it could have a disruptive impact on the industry. Nevertheless, the complete impact of the deportation policy remains uncertain at this time. Kashkari stressed the need for business leaders, the US Congress, and the executive branch to consider how to adjust the policy. Furthermore, President-elect Donald Trump's proposed large tariffs on imports and tax cuts, which could increase the federal deficit, may have an impact on inflation, depending on how other countries respond to the tariffs. The economic impact of these policies will depend on specific details and factors that have yet to be determined.

Trump Janji Deportasi Imigran Besar-besaran, The Fed Ungkap Dampaknya ke Ekonomi AS