Fed Defies Market Expectations, Maintains Hawkish Stance.

Nomura Securities forecasts that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not reduce interest rates at the December 2024 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The consensus is that the Federal Reserve will implement two rate cuts in 2025, scheduled for the March and June meetings. Consequently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate projection will remain at 4.125% until next year. Nomura anticipates that the Federal Reserve will temporarily halt its tightening cycle in the upcoming month due to recent hawkish statements from US central bank officials, sustained economic growth, and the potential for inflation to rise further. The central bank has demonstrated a reluctance to reduce interest rates, a stance that has been reinforced by the political developments following Donald Trump's presidential victory. While Wall Street anticipates inflationary pressures in the coming year, they are also attempting to reconcile Trump's proposed tax cuts, higher tariffs, and immigration restrictions.

The Fed Diprediksi Tahan Suku Bunga pada FOMC Desember

Tariff Tensions Threaten Asia's Economic Growth.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has expressed concern about the potential negative impact of tariff wars on the Asian region. The IMF's Asia-Pacific Director, Krishna Srinivasan, cautioned that retaliatory tariffs could impede economic growth by raising costs and disrupting supply chains. These concerns have arisen in light of the planned imposition of high tariffs on Chinese goods and other imports by US President-elect Donald Trump. The imposition of tariffs could have a detrimental impact on global trade, impeding growth in exporting countries and potentially leading to an increase in inflation in the United States. This could result in a more restrictive monetary policy. In October, the European Union also increased tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, prompting Beijing to take retaliatory measures. Despite these uncertainties, the IMF's World Economic Outlook remains optimistic about growth in Asia, projecting a growth rate of 4.6% for this year and 4.4% for next year, compared to the global growth rate of 3.2%.

IMF Ungkap Dampak Negatif Perang Tarif untuk Ekonomi Asia

BI's Hawkish Stance Persists Amidst Rupiah Recovery.

Bank Indonesia is anticipated to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 6% during its upcoming Board of Governors' Meeting. The decision is likely to be influenced by the recent development of the Indonesian rupiah against the US dollar, with the rupiah approaching the resistance level of IDR 16,000 to IDR 16,100 per US dollar. The central bank took significant action last week to mitigate the depreciation pressure. Despite a 30% chance of a 25 bps rate cut according to a survey of economists, economist Putera Satria Sambijantoro predicts that Bank Indonesia will keep the interest rate unchanged. Mr. Sambijantoro posits that a reduction in the interest rate could potentially reinvigorate the depreciation pressure on the rupiah, thereby rendering the central bank's efforts ineffective. The rupiah has begun to demonstrate indications of resilience this week, opening at IDR 15,931.5 per US dollar. While there is a consensus that the interest rate will remain at 6%, there is still a possibility of a rate cut.

BI Rate Bakal Ditahan 6%, Imbas Ketidakpastian Pasar Keuangan Global