International News 24 June 2025
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Indonesia’s Broad Money (M2) Growth Slows in May 2025 Amid Weaker Credit and Fiscal Flows
Indonesia’s broad money supply (M2) stood at Rp9,406.6 trillion in May 2025, growing by 4.9% year-on-year (yoy), a slight deceleration from the 5.2% yoy growth recorded in April. The slowdown was driven by a 6.3% yoy rise in narrow money (M1) and a 1.5% yoy increase in quasi money. Credit growth also eased to 8.1% yoy from 8.5% in the previous month, while net claims on the central government contracted sharply by 25.7% yoy. On the other hand, net foreign assets grew by 3.9% yoy in May, slightly up from 3.6% in April. Despite this, the decline in credit expansion and a continued fiscal contraction were the main drags on overall M2 growth for the month.
US Strike on Iran Sparks Oil Price Surge, Market Braces for Retaliation and Supply Risk
Oil prices are expected to surge by US$3–US$5 per barrel when markets reopen on Sunday (June 23), following a US military strike on Iran’s nuclear facility that escalated Middle East tensions. President Donald Trump claimed the attack destroyed a major Iranian site and warned of further strikes if Iran refuses to engage in peace talks. Iran, OPEC’s third-largest oil producer, vowed retaliation and hinted at the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for 20% of global oil supply. Since the conflict began on June 13, Brent has risen 11% and WTI around 10%. Analysts warn of further price spikes if real supply disruptions occur. While the market is currently pricing in geopolitical risk, a full closure of the Strait would significantly elevate prices. However, most experts consider it an additional—not base—scenario, as pressure from major economies like China and the US would likely prevent a prolonged disruption in global oil flows.