International News 26 June 2025
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Indonesia’s Coal Exports Slump as China, India Shift to High-Calorific Supplies
China and India have sharply reduced their imports of Indonesian thermal coal, opting instead for higher-calorific grades that offer more energy per ton. With falling global prices, these higher-grade coals—sourced from Russia, Mongolia, and South Africa—have become more cost-effective. India has also expanded its imports from Kazakhstan, Colombia, and Mozambique. As a result, Indonesian coal exports to China and India dropped by 12.3% and 14.3% respectively in the first five months of 2025. To offset the decline, Indonesian miners are shifting focus to the domestic market, especially the growing demand from nickel smelters, which offer better prices than power utilities or exports. Domestic coal usage now accounts for 48.6% of total output, the highest in a decade. According to the Indonesian Mining Services Association, domestic deliveries are expected to rise by 3% in 2025, while exports may decline by 10%.
Oil Prices Edge Up Amid Fragile Iran-Israel Ceasefire, Market Eyes US Inventory Data
Oil prices rose modestly on Wednesday (June 25) as investors assessed the fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel, though prices remained near multi-week lows due to expectations that crude flows will remain uninterrupted. Brent rose 1.3% to USD 67.99 per barrel, and WTI climbed 1.4% to USD 65.24. While the ceasefire brokered by the U.S. appears fragile, analysts note that unless critical energy infrastructure or the Strait of Hormuz is impacted, weak fundamentals will continue to weigh on the oil market. Meanwhile, API data showed U.S. crude inventories dropped by 4.23 million barrels last week, with markets awaiting official government stockpile figures.
Japan’s Services Inflation Rises, Fueling BOJ Rate Hike Expectations
Japan’s services producer price index rose 3.3% year-on-year in May 2025, reinforcing market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise interest rates again soon. Services inflation is closely watched by the BOJ as it signals whether rising wages are sustainably driving price increases. Although the BOJ ended its decade-long stimulus and raised short-term rates to 0.5% earlier this year, recent U.S. import tariffs have led to downgraded growth projections. A narrow majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the next 25-basis-point rate hike to come by early 2026.
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