International News 28 July 2025
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China’s Industrial Profits Drop 1.8% in H1 2025 Amid Deflation Pressures
BEIJING — China’s industrial sector remained under pressure in the first half of 2025, with profits falling 1.8% year-on-year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This decline follows a 1.1% drop reported for the January–May period. Weaker domestic demand has deepened factory-gate deflation to its worst level in nearly two years, exacerbating issues of overcapacity in key sectors like automotive and heavy industry. State-owned automakers such as Guangzhou Automobile Group and JAC Group are projected to report the largest losses in Q2 2025. The Chinese government has pledged to crack down on aggressive price cuts, fueling speculation of a new wave of supply-side reforms. However, analysts caution that unlike a decade ago, such measures may not quickly reverse deflation due to labor market weaknesses. In detail, state-owned enterprises saw profits drop 7.6%, while private firms posted a 1.7% increase and foreign companies recorded a 2.5% gain. The NBS figures cover companies with annual revenue of at least 20 million yuan (approx. US$2.79 million) from core operations.
https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/laba-industri-china-turun-18-di-semester-i-2025
Market Outlook: Key Economic Events on Monday, July 28, 2025
On Monday, July 28, 2025, the global economic calendar presents minimal direct impact on major currencies like AUD, CAD, NZD, and CHF. However, movements in dominant currencies such as USD, EUR, and GBP could indirectly affect others. For the U.S. dollar (USD), the focus will be on the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Jul) at 21:30 WIB, which offers insight into regional manufacturing conditions. Later, at 22:30 WIB, the 3-month and 6-month U.S. Treasury Bill Auctions take place, followed by the 2-Year and 5-Year Note Auctions at 23:00 WIB, which could influence bond yields and USD performance depending on investor appetite. In Europe, there are no major releases for the euro (EUR) or the Japanese yen (JPY) today. The British pound (GBP) may react to the CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jul) at 17:00 WIB, which measures retail and wholesale sentiment. Meanwhile, Canada (CAD) will release its Wholesale Sales (MoM) for June at 19:30 WIB — a stronger figure could support the loonie. In Asia, China’s Industrial Profit (YoY) report at 11:00 WIB will be closely watched, as weaker-than-expected results could weigh on the Chinese yuan (CNY) and regional sentiment. With limited high-impact data, traders should remain alert to geopolitical news and bond market developments for further cues.
US and EU Strike Landmark Trade Deal, Avoiding Full-Blown Tariff War
The United States and the European Union reached a high-stakes trade framework agreement on Sunday, July 27, 2025, narrowly averting a potential transatlantic trade war. Under the deal, the US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods—half the previously threatened 30%—in exchange for substantial EU investment and purchases of American energy and military equipment. President Donald Trump and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the deal after a one-hour meeting at Trump’s golf resort in Scotland. The EU committed to investing around $600 billion in the US, alongside plans to purchase $750 billion worth of American energy and hundreds of billions in defense contracts over the next few years. While welcomed by some leaders, such as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the agreement drew criticism for still imposing steep tariffs, particularly the continued 27.5% duty on European automobiles and parts. EU lawmaker Bernd Lange warned the economic burden may fall heavily on the bloc. The euro gained modestly following the announcement. Despite being hailed as a breakthrough, the agreement—similar in style to the recent US-Japan deal—leaves key sectors like alcoholic beverages unresolved and steel tariffs untouched. Analysts suggest the deal is more of a political gesture than a comprehensive trade solution, raising questions about its clarity and durability in the months ahead.
https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/as-dan-uni-eropa-sepakati-tarif-15-untuk-cegah-perang-dagang