International News 11 August 2025
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China Seeks Easing of US AI Chip Export Curbs Ahead of Possible Trump–Xi Summit
China is pushing the United States to relax export controls on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips critical for artificial intelligence as part of a potential trade agreement before a possible meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, the Financial Times reported. Beijing has reportedly conveyed to Washington experts that the restrictions are hindering companies like Huawei from developing their own AI chips. These advanced HBM chips, often paired with AI-focused GPUs such as those from Nvidia, are essential for processing large-scale data tasks efficiently. The Biden and Trump administrations have successively tightened limits on advanced chip exports to China to curb its AI and defense advancements. While the controls have limited US companies’ ability to fully tap China’s strong semiconductor demand, the Chinese market remains a vital revenue driver for American chipmakers. The White House, US State Department, and China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs have not yet commented on the report.
Key Economic Releases to Watch (11–16 Aug 2025)
This week brings a heavy macro slate that could spark outsized volatility—especially for the USD. The calendar is headlined by U.S. inflation data on Tuesday (Core CPI & headline CPI) and major U.S. flow/market events (note auctions on Monday, PPI and weekly jobless claims on Thursday, retail sales and industrial production plus the Michigan sentiment print on Friday). Central banks and large-data releases to watch include the RBA interest-rate decision (Tuesday), Australia’s jobs report (Thursday) and wage/price gauges (Wage Price Index on Wednesday), Eurozone Q2 GDP and June industrial production (Thursday), Japan M2/M3 and PPI (Tuesday–Wednesday), plus Canada’s building permits and factory/wholesale sales (Tuesday & Friday). Saturday closes with U.S. TIC flows, which can signal international demand for U.S. assets. Market impact: expect sharp FX and rates moves if U.S. CPI or PPI surprise—stronger-than-forecast inflation would bolster the dollar and Fed-rate expectations, while softer prints would weigh on the USD and lift risk assets. The RBA decision and Australia employment/wages prints will be the main AUD drivers; Eurozone GDP and industrial data will set EUR direction; Japan liquidity stats may influence JPY sentiment; Canadian data will move CAD. Traders should monitor consensus vs. actual prints, central-bank language around policy, and manage position sizing given the compressed event risk across the week.
Oil Prices End Flat but Post Sharp Weekly Loss Amid Geopolitical and Trade Uncertainty
Oil prices closed little changed on Friday (Aug 8, 2025) as markets awaited an upcoming meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump. Brent crude for October delivery rose 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $66.59 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) September contracts held steady at $63.88. Despite the daily stability, Brent fell 4.4% and WTI dropped 5.1% for the week — their steepest declines since late June — driven by economic concerns tied to tariffs. Reports suggested Washington and Moscow are working toward a potential Ukraine peace deal, which could lead to sanctions relief for Russia. However, trade tensions escalated as Trump threatened higher tariffs on India and potentially China over Russian oil purchases. Market sentiment was further pressured by OPEC+’s decision to boost production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, fully reversing an earlier 2.2 million bpd voluntary cut. Rising US oil rig counts, a stronger dollar, and reduced speculative long positions also weighed on prices. Analysts noted that heightened geopolitical risks, shifting expectations around the Trump–Putin summit, and looming US import tariffs are driving volatility. Meanwhile, Trump’s nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve fueled speculation of a more dovish policy stance, which could support future economic growth and oil demand.