EU Proposes Sharply Reduced Steel Import Quotas and Steep Over-Quota Tariffs

The European Commission has put forward plans to cut tariff-free steel import quotas by nearly 50% and impose a 50% duty on volumes exceeding the quotas, in a bid to shore up the EU steel industry. Under the proposal, the annual quota would fall to 18.3 million tons, down 47% from 2024 levels. Imports beyond that threshold would face double the current excess-volume tariffs, aligning with policies in Canada and the U.S. This move comes as Europe’s steel plants are operating at only 67% of capacity, and is intended to boost utilization to around 80%. Currently, safeguard measures limit imports of 26 steel products, with a 25% tariff applied to volumes above quota, but the rising quotas have eroded protection despite weak demand. Under WTO rules, these safeguards expire in mid-2026. The new policy would require importers to verify product origin, and has triggered support from the European steel industry—Eurofer estimates imports would drop to 15% of EU demand and preserve hundreds of thousands of jobs. The plan must now pass EU member states and Parliament and may include trade talks with WTO partners to grant exemptions.

https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/uni-eropa-pangkas-kuota-impor-baja-hampir-50-lindungi-industri-domestik

Global Nickel Surplus to Persist into 2026 as Indonesian Output Soars

Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM), a leading Japanese nickel smelter, forecasts that the global nickel market will remain in surplus next year for the third consecutive year, largely driven by continued output growth in Indonesia. SMM projects a surplus of 256,000 metric tons in 2026, slightly below this year’s estimate of 263,000 tons. This comes as Indonesia’s production of nickel pig iron (low-grade feedstock) is expected to rise 10.3% in 2025, and expand further in 2026 to reach 1.76 million tons, up 4.1% year-on-year. On the demand side, SMM anticipates global nickel consumption will grow by 2.4% to 3.52 million tons in 2026, buoyed by stable stainless steel demand, while supply is projected to increase by 2.0% to 3.78 million tons. The company cautions that battery demand will remain modest, partially constrained by the rise of lower-nickel (or nickel-free) LiFePO₄ (LFP) chemistry—already capturing two-thirds of EV sales in China. SMM still estimates battery-related nickel demand will reach 470,000 tons in 2026, only a small increase over 2025, underlining the view that stainless steel will remain the backbone of nickel demand in the near term.

https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/pasar-nikel-global-diperkirakan-tetap-surplus-tahun-depan#goog_rewarded

World Bank Raises China Growth Forecast to 4.8% for 2025, Sees Slower 2026

The World Bank has upgraded its China growth forecast for 2025 to 4.8%, citing resilient domestic demand, while projecting a cooling to 4.2% in 2026 amid sluggish consumer and business sentiment and weakening export orders. This upward revision contrasts with its April outlook, which had pegged growth at 4.0% for both years. Meanwhile, the World Bank expects the East Asia & Pacific region to expand 4.4% in 2025, a slight upward revision, holding steady at 4.5% for 2026.  The report warns that China’s slowdown will be driven by reduced fiscal stimulus (in light of higher public debt), structural headwinds, and decelerating export demand.

https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/bank-dunia-kerek-proyeksi-ekonomi-china-menjadi-48-di-2025