International News 17 October 2025
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IMF Warns Global Debt to Hit 100% of GDP by 2029 Amid Mounting Fiscal Pressures
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that global public debt is set to reach 100% of global GDP by 2029, the highest level since the aftermath of World War II. In its latest Fiscal Monitor, the IMF said government debt has been rising faster than anticipated, even before the pandemic, as countries increased spending to protect citizens and support businesses. The Fund urged governments to shift spending toward growth-supportive investments—such as infrastructure and education—to strengthen long-term productivity and fiscal sustainability. Major G20 economies, including the U.S., U.K., Japan, France, Canada, and China, are projected to see their debt ratios exceed 100% of GDP within the next few years. The U.K.’s public debt is forecast to peak at 105.9% of GDP in 2029 before easing slightly in 2030. The IMF highlighted growing fiscal pressures from defense, demographics, and technology spending, coupled with governments’ political reluctance to raise taxes. Although developing nations generally have lower debt ratios, the Fund cautioned that they face higher vulnerability to debt crises, with 55 countries now in or near debt distress. Activists and economists have called on the IMF to take a stronger role in reforming the global debt restructuring framework, as the current Common Framework is seen as slow and inaccessible. During the IMF’s annual meetings in Washington, Deputy Director Athanasios Vamvakidis noted that bond markets are increasingly wary of the U.K., citing greater volatility in British assets compared with other advanced economies—a sign of investor concern over fiscal sustainability.
Italy’s Gold Reserves Surge in Value Amid Record Bullion Rally
Italy is reaping major benefits from the global gold boom, as the metal’s record-breaking rally lifts the value of its vast central bank reserves. With 2,452 tons of gold, Italy now holds the third-largest official reserve in the world, behind only the U.S. and Germany. The hoard—valued at roughly US$300 billion, or about 13% of Italy’s 2024 GDP—reflects decades of cautious stewardship and the country’s refusal to sell its holdings despite repeated debt crises. The Bank of Italy’s stance contrasts with other European nations that have liquidated portions of their reserves in the past, a strategy that now appears prudent as gold prices soar above US$4,000 per ounce. Italy’s gold policy has deep historical roots shaped by wartime losses and economic turmoil. After the Nazis seized much of its bullion in the 1940s, postwar leaders rebuilt reserves during the “economic miracle” of the 1950s and 1960s, converting export-driven dollar inflows into gold. During the 1970s oil crisis, Italy even used part of its reserves as collateral for loans from Germany’s Bundesbank but steadfastly avoided outright sales. Former Bank of Italy Deputy Governor Salvatore Rossi likened the nation’s gold to a “family heirloom”—a safeguard for national stability and credibility. Today, that legacy is paying off handsomely as investors worldwide flock to gold amid inflation fears, rising debt, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Oil Prices Slide to Five-Month Low Amid Trade Tensions and Supply Surplus Outlook
Oil prices fell to their lowest level in five months on Wednesday (October 15, 2025) as renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and a bearish International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast for a 2026 supply surplus dampened market sentiment. Brent crude dropped 0.8% to $61.91 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 0.7% to $58.27, marking their weakest closes since early May. Bank of America warned that Brent could fall below $50 if the trade dispute worsens amid rising OPEC+ production. The U.S. and China—world’s two largest oil consumers—have re-escalated their trade war, imposing reciprocal port fees that threaten to disrupt global shipping flows. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington aims to avoid further escalation and confirmed plans for a Trump–Xi Jinping meeting later this month in South Korea. China’s deepening deflationary pressures and prolonged property slump have added to concerns over demand, while the IEA projected that global oil markets could face a surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in 2026. Additional pressure came from U.K. sanctions targeting Russian energy giants Lukoil and Rosneft, as well as 51 “shadow fleet” tankers. In the U.S., analysts expect crude inventories to have risen by 0.3 million barrels last week, signaling the first three-week stock build since April. Despite expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts to support economic growth, the combination of trade frictions, weak Chinese data, and rising supply continues to weigh heavily on oil market sentiment.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/14AM86EysQyF_b4Lwum98YAT7D9dlaD-L94SNjhwjgvA/edit?tab=t.0