International News 04 December 2025
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China Expected to Maintain 5% Growth Target in 2026 as Fiscal and Monetary Support Continues
China is likely to maintain its current annual economic growth target of around 5% for 2026, a level that will require authorities to keep fiscal and monetary taps open as they work to exit a prolonged period of deflation. The target is expected to anchor the launch of China’s new five-year plan and help offset the drag from a deep property slump, weak consumer demand, industrial overcapacity, and slowing infrastructure-led investment. While top leaders have signaled a long-term shift toward boosting household consumption and restructuring the economy, policymakers acknowledge that such changes will take time—making short-term support measures the priority. Most government advisers who spoke to Reuters back a 5% target for 2026, though a minority suggested a slightly lower 4.5%–5% range. Leaders are expected to finalize the target at the annual Central Economic Work Conference later this month, with public announcement to follow at the March parliamentary meeting. Advisers also recommend keeping the fiscal deficit at about 4% of GDP or slightly higher, matching 2025’s record-high level. Analysts expect the People’s Bank of China to resume monetary easing as early as January 2026, while fiscal stimulus—including early bond issuance and continued consumer trade-in subsidies totaling 300 billion yuan—remains central to policy support. China’s leadership aims to sustain above-4% annual growth this decade to double GDP per capita to US$20,000 by 2030, marking its transition to a “moderately advanced” economy. However, structural imbalances have worsened: industrial output continues to outpace demand, deflationary pressures are expected through 2026, and Morgan Stanley forecasts China will only exit deflation in 2027. The new five-year plan is not expected to include explicit medium-term growth targets but will emphasize raising household consumption—from the current ~40% of GDP toward 45%—through structural reforms, stronger social welfare, and easing the internal residency system.
https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/akhiri-deflasi-china-targetkan-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-5-di-2026
EU Sets Legally Binding Phaseout of Russian Gas Imports by 2027
The European Council announced an agreement with the European Parliament to fully phase out Russian gas imports by 2027, marking a major step to end the bloc’s energy dependence on Moscow following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The deal includes legally binding bans on Russian LNG imports by the end of 2026 and pipeline gas by autumn 2027. Beyond reducing geopolitical risks, the policy is designed to accelerate the EU’s transition toward alternative and renewable energy sources. Russia’s share in EU gas imports has already fallen sharply—from 45% before the war to 12% as of October 2025—though several member states, including Hungary, France, and Belgium, still receive Russian supplies. The phased ban underscores the EU’s commitment to strengthening energy security while reshaping its long-term energy landscape.
Silver Pulls Back After Hitting Record High; Gold Holds Steady Ahead of Key U.S. Data
Silver retreated on Wednesday after touching a fresh all-time high, while gold traded steady as markets stayed cautious ahead of major U.S. economic releases that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. As of 16:15 WIB, silver fell 0.5% to US$58.15 per ounce after briefly hitting a record US$58.94 earlier in the session. The recent rally has been driven by tightening supply expectations, sustained buying flows, and short-covering momentum after breaking above the key resistance level of US$54.50 last week. Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen warned that silver is now extremely overbought, making a near-term pullback likely. Silver has surged 101% year-to-date—far outperforming gold, which is up about 60% in the same period. Gold, meanwhile, held steady at US$4,207.6 per ounce after dropping more than 1% in the previous session. December gold futures rose 0.4% to US$4,237.9. Hansen noted that gold is moving sideways as investors await key U.S. indicators, including November’s ADP employment data and the core PCE inflation report due Friday. Expectations for a Fed rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting have strengthened, with Bank of America forecasting a 25-basis-point cut and CME’s FedWatch showing an 87% probability of easing. Gold tends to benefit in lower-rate environments since it offers no yield and becomes more attractive as borrowing costs fall.