Japan Raises Growth Outlook as Recovery Gains Momentum Under New Leadership

The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecasts upward for the first time under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, signaling growing confidence in the recovery. According to the latest cabinet-approved projections, Japan’s economy is expected to expand by 1.1% in the fiscal year ending March 2026, up from a previous estimate of 0.7% released in August. The upgrade reflects the assessment that the impact of U.S. tariffs has been milder than initially feared, while domestic demand has remained resilient. Looking ahead, the government projects growth to accelerate further to 1.3% in fiscal year 2026, supported by steady household consumption and stronger capital spending. Private consumption is expected to grow 1.3% in both fiscal 2025 and 2026, helped by tax relief and easing inflation that should sustain purchasing power. Capital investment is forecast to rise 2.8% in fiscal 2026, driven by subsidies and tax incentives aimed at crisis preparedness and strategic growth sectors. These projections will underpin the upcoming national budget, following the launch of a ¥21.3 trillion (US$136.7 billion) stimulus package announced in November to bolster households and economic activity.

https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/stimulus-jumbo-dongkrak-proyeksi-ekonomi-jepang

Silver Surges Toward Best Annual Performance Since 1979 on China Supply Curbs

Silver prices are rallying sharply and are on track for their strongest annual performance since 1979, driven by tightening global supply after China moved to restrict exports. According to The Telegraph, silver jumped 6.29% last Friday to a record high of US$76.37 per troy ounce. Year to date, silver has surged 159%, far outpacing gold’s roughly 70% gain, as investors flock to precious metals amid inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and rising government debt. China has become a key catalyst for the rally. Starting January 1, Beijing requires exporters of silver, tungsten, and antimony to obtain special licenses from the Ministry of Commerce, a move likely to favor large producers and tighten global availability. As the world’s second-largest silver producer after Mexico, China produced about 3,300 metric tons in 2024, roughly three times U.S. output. The policy, aimed at “protecting resources,” has widened the supply-demand imbalance at a time when inventories are shrinking and industrial demand—particularly for solar panels—is rising. Combined with U.S. rate cuts that reduce the appeal of yield-bearing assets, silver has benefited strongly, though its relatively small market size means prices remain highly volatile.

https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/perak-cetak-rekor-tertinggi-sejak-1979-efek-langsung-gebrakan-china

Uneven Consumer Spending Masks Growing Income Divide in the U.S. Economy

U.S. consumer spending remains the backbone of economic growth, but underlying data point to a widening gap in purchasing power across income groups. Gross domestic product expanded at an annualized 4.3% in Q3 2025, driven largely by household consumption. However, this strength is uneven: middle- and lower-income households are becoming more cautious, amid a softening labor market and rising inflation concerns linked to import tariffs. Consumer sentiment remains subdued despite late-year economic improvements, with worries about living costs still dominant. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest in four years, and nearly two-thirds of respondents expect joblessness to increase over the next year. Spending patterns highlight the divide. According to Bank of America Institute, consumer spending by the top third of income earners grew 4% year-on-year in November, the fastest pace in four years, while spending by the lowest-income group rose by less than 1%. Middle- and lower-income consumers are prioritizing essentials and value, benefiting discount-oriented retailers such as Walmart. Analysts warn that tariff-related price pressures have yet to fully pass through and could broaden inflation in 2026, potentially extending the strain on household purchasing power and reinforcing disparities across income groups.

https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/daya-beli-konsumen-as-tak-merata#google_vignette