International News 15 January 2026
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Iran’s Rial Under Severe Pressure as Economic Crisis and Protests Intensify
Iran is facing a deepening economic crisis alongside escalating political unrest, with the sharp collapse of its national currency, the rial, becoming a key symbol of distress. Reports indicate the rial has effectively lost tradability against the euro in Europe, further isolating Iran from the global financial system. Domestically, soaring prices and collapsing purchasing power have made basic necessities increasingly unaffordable, fueling large-scale protests since late December led by merchants and businesses angered by inflation, economic contraction, and currency weakness. While claims that the rial has fallen to “zero” are technically inaccurate, analysts agree the currency has suffered extreme depreciation and a dramatic loss of real value. Structural factors lie at the core of the rial’s decline. Heavy U.S. and international sanctions have restricted Iran’s access to foreign currency, particularly oil revenues, while inflation surged to over 42% in December 2025. Economic growth has turned negative, policy changes have increased demand for hard currency, and prolonged political instability has raised risk premiums. Iran’s parliament approved a plan in late 2025 to remove four zeros from the rial, but analysts view this as a cosmetic reset rather than a solution, as it fails to address fundamental problems such as high inflation, weak growth, and limited access to global capital.
Oil Prices Jump Over 2% as Iran Supply Risks Eclipse Venezuela Concerns
Global oil prices surged more than 2% on Tuesday, driven by rising fears of potential disruptions to Iranian crude exports that outweighed expectations of increased supply from Venezuela. Brent crude for March 2026 delivery climbed US$1.60, or 2.5%, to US$65.47 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for February rose US$1.65, or 2.8%, to US$61.15 per barrel. Analysts noted that markets are increasingly pricing in geopolitical risk premiums amid escalating tensions involving Iran, Venezuela, Russia–Ukraine, and broader U.S. strategic actions. Iran, a key OPEC producer, is facing its largest anti-government protests in years, with reports of thousands of deaths and arrests triggering sharp warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump, including threats of military action and a proposed 25% tariff on countries trading with Tehran. Analysts estimate that a full exclusion of Iranian crude could remove up to 3.3 million barrels per day from global supply. Additional supply concerns emerged after drone attacks hit oil tankers in the Black Sea, reinforcing expectations of tighter markets. While Venezuela’s potential return to exports remains a counterbalance, analysts say geopolitical tensions have added an estimated US$3–4 per barrel in risk premium to oil prices.
World Bank Sees Resilient Global Economy, but Growth Remains Uneven
The global economy has proven more resilient than expected, with the World Bank projecting global GDP growth of 2.6% in 2026, only slightly slower than 2.7% in 2025, according to its latest Global Economic Prospects report released Tuesday. Growth is forecast to edge back up to 2.7% in 2027. The upward revision from the World Bank’s June outlook is driven largely by stronger-than-anticipated performance in the United States, where GDP growth is now expected to reach 2.2% in 2026, up from 2.1% in 2025, despite ongoing trade disruptions linked to tariffs. However, the World Bank warned that global growth remains too weak and too concentrated in advanced economies to meaningfully reduce extreme poverty. Chief Economist Indermit Gill noted that while global GDP per capita in 2025 stood about 10% above pre-pandemic levels—marking the fastest recovery from a major crisis in six decades—many developing countries are being left behind. Around a quarter of emerging and developing economies still have lower per capita incomes than in 2019, with the poorest nations facing the greatest challenges.