International News 30 January 2026
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India Sees Slower Growth in FY2026–27 Amid Global Trade Risks
The Indian government projects economic growth of 6.8%–7.2% for the fiscal year starting April 2026, marking a slowdown from the estimated 7.4% growth in FY2025–26. The outlook, published in the annual Economic Survey presented to parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, highlights that while domestic economic conditions remain stable, weaker growth among trading partners and trade disruptions stemming from higher global tariffs could weigh on exports and investor sentiment. The government’s FY2025–26 growth estimate still exceeds last year’s survey range of 6.3%–6.8%. The survey, authored by Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran and his team, expects investment and consumption to strengthen as companies respond to recent structural reforms. Released ahead of Sunday’s federal budget, the report underscores the government’s intent to sustain high growth while shielding the economy from geopolitical shocks and U.S. tariff uncertainty, including a 50% levy imposed by President Donald Trump on certain Indian exports. Despite strong growth and low inflation, foreign investors continue to trim exposure to Indian equities due to elevated valuations, soft earnings, and geopolitical concerns. In a positive development, India and the European Union recently finalized a long-delayed trade agreement aimed at cutting tariffs on most goods, boosting bilateral trade, and reducing reliance on the U.S. market.
Indian Rupee Hits Record Low Despite Strong Economic Growth
The Indian rupee slid to a fresh all-time low on Thursday, weakening to 91.9850 per U.S. dollar, surpassing last week’s previous record of 91.9650. The currency has depreciated around 2% year-to-date and nearly 5% since the United States imposed steep tariffs on Indian exports under President Donald Trump. The decline comes despite India’s resilient domestic fundamentals, including GDP growth of 8.2% in the quarter ended September, as persistent foreign capital outflows and rising hedging activity overshadow positive economic sentiment. Market participants believe the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) likely intervened before the spot market opened to slow the rupee’s fall toward the psychological 92-per-dollar level, although the central bank maintains it does not target specific exchange rates and acts only to curb excessive volatility. Pressure on the rupee remains intense due to U.S. tariffs, portfolio outflows, higher gold imports, and corporate demand for dollar hedging. Goldman Sachs expects the rupee could weaken further to around 94 per dollar over the next 12 months, noting the RBI’s increased tolerance for currency flexibility and a shift toward rebuilding foreign exchange reserves when the dollar softens, which may limit any significant rupee appreciation.
S&P 500 Breaks 7,000 as Investors Pin Hopes on Big Tech Earnings and AI Monetization
The S&P 500 crossed the 7,000 milestone for the first time on Wednesday, underscoring strong investor optimism ahead of key earnings releases from major U.S. technology companies. The index opened at 7,002.00 and was up 0.29% at 6,998.92 by 21:42 WIB, compared with Tuesday’s close of 6,978.60. The rally has been fueled by expectations that Big Tech earnings will confirm that heavy investments in artificial intelligence (AI) are translating into tangible financial returns. Market attention is now centered on upcoming results from Microsoft, Apple, Meta Platforms, and Tesla—four members of the so-called “Magnificent Seven.” According to LSEG, these megacap companies are expected to post average revenue growth of 21.5% this quarter, far outpacing the 5.3% growth projected for the rest of the S&P 500. Analysts warn that expectations are extremely high, particularly for Meta, Microsoft, and Apple, leaving little room for disappointment. With technology stocks accounting for roughly one-third of the S&P 500’s weighting, the performance of these giants—and evidence of AI monetization—will be critical in determining the index’s near-term direction.