MENA Growth Stunted by Conflict and Oil Cuts.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region will reach 4% next year. The growth forecast is contingent on the phasing out of oil production and the resolution of conflicts. However, the IMF's latest Regional Economic Outlook indicates that growth will remain relatively subdued at 2.1% in 2024, lower than previously anticipated, due to geopolitical and macroeconomic factors. The IMF has issued a warning that the entire region, including the Caucasus and Central Asia, faces risks that could have a negative impact. To enhance medium-term growth potential, the IMF recommends expediting structural reforms in governance and labor markets. The region is making steady progress in controlling inflation, which is expected to reach an average target rate of 3% by 2024, with the exception of Egypt and Iran. The downward revision of growth estimates for 2024 is largely attributable to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas and the extension of OPEC+ voluntary oil production cuts.

IMF Proyeksi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara 4% di 2025

Thai Economy Seeks Growth Amidst Currency Headwinds.

The Thai economy is projected to expand by 3% by 2025, driven by private consumption, exports, investment, and tourism. In line with previous forecasts, the country's economy is expected to grow by 2.7% this year. In order to support economic expansion and stimulate activity, the Bank of Thailand has recently reduced interest rates. The head of the Ministry of Finance's fiscal policy office, Pornchai Thiraveja, highlighted the role of monetary policy in fostering economic growth. However, he also stated that there are constraints on the fiscal space and that quasi-fiscal measures may need to be considered to exceed the projected growth. The Ministry of Finance anticipates that the third quarter will see GDP growth below 3%, but that it will rise above 4% in the final quarter of 2024. There are concerns that the strengthening of the baht against the US dollar may have an adverse impact on export competitiveness and tourism.

Ekonomi Thailand Diproyeksikan Tumbuh 3% Tahun Depan

UK Borrowing Soars to Fund New Government's Spending Spree.

The UK government plans to issue additional bonds to fund the new Labor government's budgetary plans. The Debt Management Office (DMO) has revised its bond issuance plan for the current financial year, increasing it by ￡19.2 billion to ￡296.9 billion. This figure exceeds the projected ￡294 billion in London bond issuance. The DMO CEO, Jessica Pulay, anticipates that the bond market will be able to accommodate this revision without difficulty. This year's issuance is on track to be the second highest on record, after last year's issuance during the pandemic. The UK government's annual spending plan will also increase by ￡70 billion per year over five years, with only ￡36 billion covered by taxes. Budget forecasters anticipate that the DMO will require an increase in debt of ￡1.063 trillion over the next four years, which represents a ￡120 billion increase from earlier predictions.

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