International News 04/11
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Fed's Rate Cut Expected to Support Stock Market Rally.
In light of the weaker-than-expected October US employment report, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are anticipated to reduce interest rates by a quarter point at their upcoming meeting. The report indicates that payroll data for the nonfarm sector increased by only 12,000 last month, a figure that may have been distorted by the impact of hurricanes and a strike at Boeing Co. Furthermore, data released on Friday indicated that hiring in August and September was less robust than previously assumed, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The data indicates that the labor market is still in decline from previous years, supporting the arguments of Fed officials to continue lowering interest rates in order to suppress inflation. Chief US Economist Steven Blitz anticipates a 25-basis-point reduction in November and another 25-basis-point cut in December.
Data Tenaga Kerja AS Lesu, The Fed Diramal Lanjut Pangkas Suku Bunga
Weak Oil Prices May Impact Global Economy.
World crude oil prices declined further during the week, driven by global political uncertainty and increasing oil production worldwide. On Friday, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil increased by 0.33% to US$69.49 per barrel, while the price of Brent crude oil decreased by 0.08% to US$73.10 per barrel. Over the course of the week, the price of WTI crude oil fell by 3.19%, while Brent crude oil depreciated by 3.88%. Despite a slight increase in WTI oil prices on Friday due to reports of potential retaliatory strikes by Iran against Israel, the record levels of US oil production continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices. Analysts believe that any response from Iran would likely be measured and designed to demonstrate strength, rather than to initiate a full-scale war. Iran and Israel have been engaged in a series of retaliatory strikes as part of a broader conflict in the Middle East.
Harga Minyak Dunia Terjungkal Dalam Sepekan Usai Lonjakan Produk
Weakening Japanese Economy May Delay BOJ's Tightening Plans.
The Japanese government has revised its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year, reflecting a deterioration in export performance and ongoing fragility in the economic recovery. The Cabinet Office of Japan has revised its inflation-adjusted GDP growth forecast downward from 0.9% to 0.7%, a change announced in July. While this figure remains higher than the private sector forecast of 0.5% growth, it reflects the challenges currently facing the economy due to declining global demand and weakening domestic consumption. The growth projections for the next fiscal year remain at 1.2%. The Bank of Japan has maintained its ultra-low interest rates and indicated that conditions are suitable for another rate hike. However, prolonged weakness in global and domestic demand could impede the bank's plans to fully exit from loose monetary conditions. These revised forecasts are crucial for the preparation of the country's budget.