International News 09 September 2025
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Brent Oil May Drop to $55 by Year-End, Says S&P Global
S&P Global projects Brent crude oil prices could fall to around $55 per barrel by the end of 2025, according to Dave Ernsberger, Co-President of S&P Global Commodity Insights, speaking at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (Sept 8). Currently, Brent futures edged up 0.5% to $65.84 per barrel after OPEC+ agreed to raise output starting in October, albeit at a slower pace due to weakening demand expectations. Ernsberger noted that prices may decline further if a large surplus develops, Russian oil flows remain strong, stock builds stall, and additional supply moves into commercial inventories. Such conditions could trigger contango, where short-term contracts trade below longer-term ones, signaling abundant supply. With dated Brent serving as the benchmark for over 60% of global crude trade, these shifts could have wide-reaching effects on energy markets.
Gold Could Soar to $8,000 by 2029, Says TradingShot Analysis
Gold prices may more than double before the end of this decade, potentially reaching $8,000 per troy ounce by October 2029, according to a technical analysis by TradingShot published on TradingView (Sept 5). The forecast highlights gold’s nearly uninterrupted rally since October 2023 as evidence of a long-term bullish trend. Analysts point to the monthly moving average (MA) as a key marker separating bull and bear cycles, with gold currently trading well above it. Additionally, the metal has been moving within a multi-decade ascending channel that began in August 1993, with each bull run beginning after rebounds from the MA50. The current rally, which started in August 2018, is said to mirror earlier cycles. TradingShot also referenced Fibonacci extensions to support its projection, noting that previous bull cycles peaked slightly above the 3.618 Fibonacci level before turning bearish—a pattern now repeating. Using time-cycle analysis, they estimate the ongoing bull market could culminate in October 2029 at the upper boundary of the channel near $8,000. As of the latest session, gold traded around $3,586 per ounce, up 36% year-to-date. While short-term corrections remain possible, analysts expect the broader uptrend to remain intact through the end of the decade.
https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/harga-emas-berpotensi-tembus-us8000-ini-proyeksi-waktunya
Trump Signs Executive Order Granting Zero-Tariff Exemptions
U.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order granting zero-tariff exemptions for over 45 categories of products from trade partners that reach framework agreements with Washington, Reuters reported on Sept 8. The exemptions cover commodities such as nickel, gold, graphite, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, aircraft parts, and certain agricultural goods. Products like stainless steel-grade nickel, EV battery materials, lidocaine, diagnostic reagents, neodymium magnets, LEDs, specific plastics, and polysilicon for solar panels are also included. The order effectively removes tariffs previously imposed under Section 232 of U.S. National Security Law, including a 39% duty on Swiss gold imports. A White House official noted the policy aims to lower trade barriers for “aligned” nations while maintaining leverage over others. This marks a shift after Trump spent much of his term expanding tariffs to reset global trade dynamics, reduce the U.S. trade deficit, and pressure partners into concessions.