International News 10 September 2025
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China Pushes ASEAN to Seal Upgraded Trade Deal by Year-End Amid U.S. Tariff Pressures
China has urged the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to finalize and sign the upgraded China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (FTA) 3.0 before the end of 2025, Deputy Commerce Minister Yan Dong said on Monday. The talks concluded in May, paving the way for expanded market access in agriculture, digital economy, and pharmaceuticals. Beijing is positioning itself as a “more open” economy, in contrast to U.S. President Donald Trump’s punitive trade measures targeting the region. Yan emphasized that China and ASEAN are doubling down on multilateral cooperation to stabilize supply chains amid rising protectionism and unilateral trade restrictions. ASEAN has become China’s largest export market, with shipments to the bloc surging 22.5% year-on-year to US$57.1 billion in August, offsetting a steep 33.1% decline in exports to the U.S. Both sides are also part of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), though analysts see it as less ambitious than newer trade pacts in areas such as e-commerce and sanitary standards. Beijing’s push for the upgraded FTA coincides with its bid to join the CPTPP, widely regarded as the “gold standard” in trade policy. Strengthening ASEAN ties could help China cushion the blow from U.S. tariffs while deepening its regional economic influence.
Saudi Arabia’s Economy Expands 3.9% in Q2, Driven by Non-Oil Growth
Saudi Arabia’s GDP grew 3.9% in Q2 2025, supported primarily by the non-oil sector, which expanded 4.6% year-on-year, according to official estimates released on Sept 8. The strongest gains came from electricity, gas, and water, followed by finance, insurance, and business services. Oil sector activity also grew 3.8%, with a notable 5.6% increase from the previous quarter, while government activity inched up 0.6%. The kingdom, alongside OPEC+, recently agreed to add 137,000 barrels per day of oil production starting October, a much smaller boost compared to prior months. This move, combined with Western sanctions on Russia and Iran, has kept oil prices around US$65 per barrel, despite a 15% drop this year. However, the IMF estimates Saudi Arabia needs oil above US$90 per barrel to balance its budget. With a projected US$27 billion fiscal deficit in 2025, Riyadh is accelerating its Vision 2030 agenda, pouring billions into tourism, entertainment, and sports to diversify away from oil dependence.
https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/pdb-arab-saudi-melesat-39-q2-2025-bukan-minyak-tapi-ini
Standard Chartered Sees Fed Cutting Rates by 50 bps as Weak Jobs Data Fuels Dovish Shift
Standard Chartered has doubled its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting, now expecting a 50-basis-point rate cut following weaker-than-expected August payrolls, Reuters reported on Sept 8. Market pricing reflects a 92.7% probability of a 25 bps cut and a 7.3% chance of a 50 bps move, according to LSEG data. Attention is also on this week’s inflation report, which could tilt the Fed toward a larger cut if price pressures remain sticky. Several major banks have revised their forecasts in light of the weak jobs data. BofA Global Research, Barclays, Macquarie, Nomura, Deutsche Bank, and HSBC now project at least two rate cuts by year-end, while Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs expect three 25 bps cuts, taking the Fed Funds rate to 3.50–3.75%. UBS is the most dovish, forecasting a total of 100 bps in cuts extending into 2026. Analysts agree the market is now fully priced for rate reductions this year as economic risks in the U.S. mount.