KSI Morning Report 09 July 2026

July 09, 2026
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KIWOOM Morning Equity – 09 July 2026 This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS, INDONESIA PUSHES PFII TO ATTRACT GLOBAL INVESTMENT US MARKET: Wall Street closed mixed in Wednesday's trading (08/07/26) after managing to trim most of its losses ahead of the closing. S&P 500 index fell 0.3% to 7,482.71, Dow Jones Industrial Average weakened 1.1% to 52,348.39, while Nasdaq Composite instead strengthened 0.2% to 25,870.65 thanks to a rebound in technology and semiconductor stocks. Market movement was initially pressured by rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, but sentiment improved after President Donald Trump stated that he does not expect war with Iran to break out again, coupled with support from the Fed's meeting minutes which showed that monetary policy views remain divided. INDONESIA: The weakening of Indonesia's Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) continued in June 2026 to 117.8 from 120.9 in May and 123.0 in April, indicating that pressure on public purchasing power is starting to be felt more acutely. This decline was reflected in the drop of the household saving-to-income ratio to 17.0% from 17.5%, while the proportion of income for consumption increased to 73.0%, showing that the public has begun reducing savings to maintain consumption. This condition was also accompanied by a weakening ability to purchase durable goods as well as rising challenges in the labor market. Market participants are now awaiting the release of retail sales data as a subsequent indicator of domestic consumption strength, while Bank Indonesia is expected to remain focused on safeguarding the stability of the rupiah exchange rate through market interventions amid increasingly limited space for interest rate hikes. - Amid challenges to domestic consumption, the government also continues to push structural reforms through the establishment of the Indonesian International Financial Center (PFII) which has the potential to attract global investments of around Rp300–500 trillion in the initial phase. The PFII will be developed as an international financial center with more competitive regulations, including foreign ownership flexibility and the implementation of an international standard common law framework to attract banks, financial institutions, and global investors. The presence of the PFII is expected to increase the competitiveness of the national financial sector, expand foreign investment inflows, as well as strengthen Indonesia's position as a regional financial services hub in the long term. JCI closed lower by 1.89% to the level of 5,873.37 after moving in the range of 5,872.02 – 5,984.47 throughout trading. This weakness was again accompanied by foreign investor selling, with a net sell of Rp674.26 billion in the regular market and Rp689.33 billion across all markets. Consequently, the cumulative foreign net sell throughout 2026 (YTD) increased to Rp89.95 trillion. Foreign selling pressure primarily occurred in MAPI, BBRI, BRMS, AMMN, and CPIN, while buying accumulation was recorded in BBCA, TLKM, BRPT, BMRI, and GOTO. On another side, the Rupiah weakened again to around Rp18,000 per US dollar along with a strengthening US dollar and increasing safe-haven asset demand due to heating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Domestics-wise, the weakness was also triggered by the drop in the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) for two consecutive months to its lowest level since September last year, indicating ongoing weakness in public purchasing power due to high food prices and fuel costs. Technically, JCI faced pressure again after failing to maintain its strengthening above the resistance area of 5,950 – 5,990, thereby forming a swing high and moving back below the EMA10 (5,887). The primary trend remains bearish because the index stays below the EMA20 (5,954) and EMA50 (6,325) as well as continuing to move within a downtrend channel. The RSI (14) fell to 44.14, indicating that momentum is beginning to weaken though it has not yet entered the oversold area. As long as JCI still holds above support at 5,873 – 5,850, the opportunity for a technical rebound toward 5,950, followed by 5,990 – 6,050 remains open. However, if the 5,873 support is broken, selling pressure has the potential to continue toward 5,744 – 5,805 (gap area), and even test 5,695 (gap area) as the subsequent support area.