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October 13, 2026 NEW
KSI Technical Recommendation 13 October 2026
Jakarta Composite Index JCI closed down 2.59% at 5,936.15 in Monday's (12/10) trading. Amid the market weakness, foreign investors still recorded a net buy of Rp128.29 billion across all markets, consisting of Rp81.10 billion in the regular market and Rp47.18 billion in the cash and negotiated markets. Technically, JCI has broken through its support level, while RSI (14) fell again to the 33 level, indicating selling pressure remains strong. The index could potentially test support at 5,839, with further weakness opening the possibility of moving toward 5,805 – 5,774, which is a gap area. Conversely, if it manages to reverse higher, JCI has the chance to test the 5,973 – 5,995 level, before heading toward 6,098, which is the EMA10 area. KIWOOM RESEARCH advises investors to take a wait-and-see approach or selectively buy on weakness, while awaiting the re-emergence of a strong buy signal. ADVISE: Wait & see or selective buy on weakness. Stockpick: JPFA, MEDC, TAPG, TINS.
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October 13, 2026 NEW
KSI Morning Report 13 October 2026
KIWOOM Morning Equity – 13 October 2026 This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. GEOPOLITICAL TURMOIL DRIVES ENERGY PRICES HIGHER, INDONESIA’S MIDDLE-CLASS PURCHASING POWER IN FOCUS US MARKET: US stock futures moved mixed on Tuesday (13/10/26) ahead of quarterly earnings reports from several major banks that could potentially set the tone for the Q3 earnings season. S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures weakened 0.2%, while Dow Jones futures rose slightly by 0.05%. Investors are watching earnings reports from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, as well as Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth. In addition, existing home sales data and statements from several Federal Reserve officials are also market focuses ahead of the release of September inflation data on Wednesday. In the previous session, S&P 500 fell 0.06%, Nasdaq Composite weakened 0.44% due to selling in memory chip stocks, while Dow Jones strengthened 0.38%. INDONESIA: The government is being urged to promptly implement more targeted fiscal incentives for the middle class to maintain purchasing power amid rising living costs. INDEF assessed that weakening purchasing power could pressure consumption, business sales, and job creation. Although the social protection budget in the 2027 Draft State Budget (RAPBN) rose to Rp549.9 trillion from the 2026 outlook of Rp500 trillion, its effectiveness depends on accurate targeting. Policy options include expanding the Government-Borne Article 21 Income Tax (PPh 21 DTP) incentive, social security contribution assistance, public transportation subsidies, and increasing productive employment and real wages. - In addition, the government issued PMK Number 71 of 2026, effective from 02 October 2026, which prioritizes payment of the principal tax debt before administrative sanctions. This policy is expected to accelerate the settlement of arrears, improve tax compliance, and maintain taxpayers' cash flow, particularly for MSMEs. However, this rule is not a tax amnesty, as the principal debt must still be paid in full, while the reduction or elimination of sanctions continues to follow applicable provisions. JCI closed down 2.59% at 5,936.15 in Monday's (12/10) trading. Amid the market weakness, foreign investors still recorded a net buy of Rp128.29 billion across all markets, consisting of Rp81.10 billion in the regular market and Rp47.18 billion in the cash and negotiated markets. Nonetheless, accumulated foreign YTD net sell still reached Rp111.19 trillion. Foreign fund flows mainly went into GOTO, BBRI, ASII, VKTR, TINS, ERAA, BRMS, SMGR, MEDC, and MDKA shares, while the largest selling pressure was recorded in BMRI, BBCA, BUMI, ANTM, DEWA, ISAT, DSSA, TLKM, EXCL, and BDMN. In the foreign exchange market, the Rupiah traded around Rp17,900 per US Dollar amid domestic sentiment and external risks that continue to weigh. Technically, JCI has broken through its support level, while RSI (14) fell again to the 33 level, indicating selling pressure remains strong. The index could potentially test support at 5,839, with further weakness opening the possibility of moving toward 5,805 – 5,774, which is a gap area. Conversely, if it manages to reverse higher, JCI has the chance to test the 5,973 – 5,995 level, before heading toward 6,098, which is the EMA10 area. KIWOOM RESEARCH advises investors to take a wait-and-see approach or selectively buy on weakness, while awaiting the re-emergence of a strong buy signal.
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October 13, 2026 NEW
KSI Fixed Income Update 13 October 2026
*?? Kiwoom Research | FIXED INCOME – Daily Report 13 Oct 2026* _This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced, copied, or distributed to others._ *?? Penurunan CDS Indonesia di Tengah Tekanan Yield Global dan Risiko Inflasi* *?? Market Review:* *Pasar obligasi domestik,* yield Indonesia tenor 10Y turun 3 bps menjadi 7,21% pada 12 Oktober 2026. Meski mengalami penurunan harian, yield 10Y masih naik 5 bps secara bulanan dan 109 bps secara tahunan. Sementara itu, yield tenor 5Y turun 1 bp menjadi 7,02%, tetapi masih meningkat 4 bps secara bulanan dan 164 bps secara tahunan. Di pasar valuta asing, rupiah bergerak di kisaran Rp17.900/USD di tengah sentimen domestik yang beragam dan risiko eksternal. Di sisi lain, CDS Indonesia tenor 5Y turun dari 92,76 menjadi 91,77, mengindikasikan penurunan premi risiko kredit. Meski demikian, kenaikan yield secara bulanan dan tahunan masih menjadi tantangan bagi pasar obligasi domestik. *Di pasar global,* yield US Treasury 10Y naik tipis menjadi 5,26% pada Jumat, meskipun turun sekitar 5 bps secara mingguan. Pasar masih mencermati konflik Timur Tengah dan dampaknya terhadap harga energi serta inflasi. Ekspektasi suku bunga tinggi masih bertahan, dengan probabilitas The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga pada bulan ini sebesar 81% dan kenaikan 25 bps pada Desember sekitar 69%. Di Jepang, yield JGB 10Y turun mendekati 3%, mengikuti penurunan yield Treasury AS, meskipun ekspektasi pengetatan moneter BOJ dan ekspansi fiskal tetap menjadi perhatian. Sementara itu, yield UK Gilt 10Y naik ke 5,45%, mendekati level tertinggi dalam 19 tahun, didorong kenaikan harga Brent ke US$107/barel dan kekhawatiran inflasi. Tingginya yield global serta ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga berpotensi mempertahankan tekanan terhadap obligasi emerging market. *?? MOST ACTIVE GOVERNMENT BONDS* * FR110 | Price 100.90 | Coupon 7.3% | Yield 7.1% | Volume 2.34M * PBS30 | Price 98.61 | Coupon 5.9% | Yield 6.7% | Volume 1.91M * PBS40 | Price 96.15 | Coupon 5.0% | Yield 6.1% | Volume 1.68M * FR64 | Price 99.20 | Coupon 6.1% | Yield 6.7% | Volume 718.19K * FR107 | Price 100.10 | Coupon 7.1% | Yield 7.1% | Volume 634.87K *?? MOST ACTIVE CORPORATE BONDS* * BOLD03B | Price 102.39 | Coupon 8.0% | Yield 6.8% | Volume 365.68K * SMPIDL01CN3 | Price 110.25 | Coupon 10.3% | Yield 7.3% | Volume 265.00K * SMOPPM02ACN4 | Price 102.00 | Coupon 7.3% | Yield 6.8% | Volume 262.22K * SMINKP04CN5 | Price 109.46 | Coupon 9.5% | Yield 6.8% | Volume 245.00K * SIBALI01BCN3 | Price 101.70 | Coupon 7.3% | Yield 6.4% | Volume 231.00K See our daily fixed income report for more information. ?? *©? KIWOOM SEKURITAS INDONESIA*
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October 12, 2026 NEW
Equity Update - HRTA (1H26)
Kiwoom Research | 1H26 Equity Update - 12 October 2026 PT. Hartadinata Abadi Tbk. (HRTA) Stellar Wholesaler Surge Amidst Margin Normalization Pressures Key Takeaways: - Stellar Wholesaler Performance. This segment has become the backbone of the company's profitability and revenue, contributing an absolute 89.33% to total corporate revenue, with revenue expansion reaching 149% y/y. - Margin Normalization. The company faced pressure on relative profitability levels, with GPM declining to 3.69%. This was primarily compressed by a 127.60% y/y surge in the COGS as well as a shift in the company's product mix, which now leans more heavily toward gold bars rather than retail jewelry. - Bullion Bank Ecosystem Ambitions. Management continues to strengthen its long-term strategic vision by positioning HRTA as a key enabler in Indonesia's Bullion Bank ecosystem. This strategic move is supported Recommendation: "BUY” We are revising our target price downward but maintaining a BUY recommendation with a 12-month target price of IDR 2,900. This target price is constructed using a Blended Valuation method, assigning a 50% weight to P/E valuation and 50% to DCF. This target represents a potential upside of 33.03% from the last closing price of IDR 2,180 (as of 09 Oct 2026). This valuation implies the company's shares are trading at a 2026F P/E of 9.6x and a P/BV of 3.0x. Downside risks include: 1) Gold price fluctuations; 2) Weakening domestic purchasing power; 3) Slower-than-expected progress in obtaining LBMA certification. Adrian Djie Equity Research KIWOOM SEKURITAS INDONESIA
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October 12, 2026 NEW
KSI Lunch Report 12 October 2026
Market Review (Session 1) In session 1, JCI closed down -1.94% to the level of 5,975.78. Market Prediction (Session 2) JCI: Index closed negative with bearish candle. JCI is expected to remain volatile with a tendency to weaken. • ANTM: Price closed at 3,130 (-1.57%) and still support range. Prices still have the opportunity to strengthen as long as the support level holds. Beware if the price breaks below the support. • BBCA: Price closed at 5,950 (-1.65%) and still support range. Prices still have the opportunity to strengthen as long as the support level holds. Beware if the price breaks below the support. • BUMI: Price closed at 172 (-4.44%) and still support range. Prices still have the opportunity to strengthen as long as the support level holds. Beware if the price breaks below the support. • MDKA: Price closed at 2,850 (-3.06%) and still support range. Prices still have the opportunity to strengthen as long as the support level holds. Beware if the price breaks below the support. News • PT. Astra International Tbk. (ASII) has initiated the voluntary tender offer period for PT. Astra Otoparts Tbk. (AUTO) shares from October 13 to November 11, 2026, targeting up to 238,442,293 shares or 4.947% of total fully paid-up shares at an offer price of Rp3,600 per share with a maximum total transaction value of Rp858.39 billion. • PT. Bank Syariah Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (BRIS) recorded an ESG financing portfolio of Rp78.6 trillion, or 23.1% of total financing as of June 2026, marking a 7.09% growth from the previous period and comprising Rp17.4 trillion in green financing and Rp61.2 trillion in social financing, alongside issuing Rp8 trillion in sustainable sukuk.
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KSI Weekly Report (12 to 16 October 2026)
Market Data During last week’s trading, Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) closed at 6,093.76, gaining 0.94%. Foreign investors recorded a net sell of IDR 2.45 trillion in the all market and IDR 2.54 trillion in the regular market. The largest foreign net buying was recorded in ULTJ (IDR 111.5 billion), MEDC (IDR 48.5 billion), EMAS (IDR 42.1 billion), DSSA (IDR 36.1 billion), and ENRG (IDR 23.7 billion). Meanwhile, the largest foreign net selling was recorded in GOTO (IDR 663.2 billion), BBCA (IDR 293.5 billion), BMRI (IDR 235.6 billion), BBRI (IDR 183.2 billion), and TLKM (IDR 170.3 billion). GLOBAL SENTIMENT: US equity indices closed higher on Friday (October 09), supported by expectations of a solid quarterly earnings season. S&P 500 rose 0.59%, Nasdaq 100 gained 0.64%, while Dow Jones advanced 423 points. Gains were also supported by AI-related technology stocks, with Alphabet rising 1%, Microsoft gaining 2.4%, and Amazon surging 3.3%, amid optimism that OpenAI’s annualized revenue could exceed US$70 billion by year-end. Investors are also awaiting earnings reports from major US banks next week, which are expected to generate nearly US$19 billion in stock-trading revenue. In the commodities market, crude oil prices hovered around US$91.50 per barrel after the US temporarily authorized Russian diesel supplies to enter the global market, with a proposed volume of approximately 22.5 million barrels. However, the US–Iran conflict continues to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing freight rates to record highs and limiting vessel availability. Oil prices remain exposed to geopolitical uncertainty, although additional Russian diesel supplies could help ease global supply pressures. DOMESTIC SENTIMENT: The Indonesian government’s interest payments on debt reached IDR 444.5 trillion as of September 2026, comprising IDR 413 trillion in domestic debt interest and IDR 31.5 trillion in external debt interest. Meanwhile, the state budget (APBN) recorded a deficit of IDR 319 trillion, equivalent to 1.24% of GDP, while the primary balance remained in surplus at IDR 125.5 trillion. Net debt financing reached IDR 494.3 trillion, or 59.4% of the 2026 state budget target, reflecting significant government financing requirements, although fiscal management remains on track according to the Ministry of Finance. Separately, Indonesia and Egypt agreed to increase bilateral trade to US$5 billion by 2030 through plans to establish an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) and a joint investment fund. The agreement could create opportunities to expand market access, attract investment, and strengthen cooperation in trade, maritime affairs, fisheries, and the defense industry. THIS WEEK’S OUTLOOK: Global markets will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to rise to 3.7% YoY from 3.4% YoY previously, while core inflation is projected to increase to 2.5% YoY from 2.4% YoY. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to remain at 5.4% YoY, while retail sales growth is projected to slow to 0.3% MoM from 1.2% MoM. These releases will be closely monitored as investors assess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. FROM CHINA: Inflation is expected to increase to 1.0% YoY from 0.8% YoY previously, while PPI is projected to rise to 4.5% YoY from 3.8% YoY. The trade surplus is expected to narrow to US$114.5 billion from US$119.1 billion. Export growth is projected to edge up to 25.3% YoY from 25.0% YoY, while import growth is expected to slow to 23.5% YoY from 28.2% YoY. FROM INDONESIA: Market participants will monitor global market developments, the rupiah exchange rate, and foreign fund flows in the equity and bond markets. Persistent US inflationary pressures and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy could influence global bond yields, foreign capital flows, and rupiah stability, remaining key considerations for investors assessing the outlook for Indonesia’s domestic financial markets. Stockpick: AADI, CDIA, TLKM.
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KSI Technical Recommendation 12 October 2026
Jakarta Composite Index JCI closed up 1.04% at 6,093.76 in Friday's (09/10) trading. Amid this gain, foreign investors recorded a net sell of Rp29.63 billion across all markets and Rp141.50 billion in the regular market. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, accumulated foreign net sell reached Rp111.13 trillion. Technically, JCI managed a rebound and held above support at the FR 61.80% level (6,033), with RSI (14) beginning to rise to the 39.8 level. If JCI manages to strengthen, it has the potential to retest 6,134 (EMA10), followed by 6,179 and 6,214. Conversely, if it fails to hold above the 6,033 support, JCI is expected to be vulnerable to testing support at 5,979, and if it breaks down, could continue to the next support at 5,898 / 5,887. KIWOOM RESEARCH suggests investors could buy on weakness and wait for a strong buy signal to re-emerge. ADVISE: Buy on weakness. Stockpick: ANTM, BBCA, BUMI, MDKA.
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KSI Morning Report 12 October 2026
KIWOOM Morning Equity – 12 October 2026 This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. EARNINGS OPTIMISM SUPPORTS GLOBAL MARKETS AS FISCAL FINANCING AND INVESTMENT COOPERATION TAKE THE SPOTLIGHT US MARKET: Wall Street closed higher on Friday (09/10/2026), supported by optimism over the quarterly earnings season and the growth outlook for the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. S&P 500 rose 0.59%, Nasdaq 100 strengthened 0.64%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.83%. Amazon shares jumped 3.3%, Microsoft rose 2.4%, and Alphabet strengthened 1% amid expectations that OpenAI's annualized revenue would reach or exceed US$70 billion by year-end. Next week, investor attention will turn to earnings reports from major US banks, which are expected to generate combined stock trading revenue of nearly US$19 billion. On a weekly basis, S&P 500 rose 0.9%, Nasdaq fell 0.1%, while Dow Jones gained 585 points. INDONESIA: The government recorded net debt financing of Rp494.3 trillion through September 2026, or 59.4% of the state budget target, mainly through the issuance of government securities (SBN) totaling Rp497.5 trillion. In the same period, non-tax state revenue (PNBP) reached Rp492.3 trillion, growing 41.7% YoY and equivalent to 84.4% of the target, driven by Task Force PKH deposits, higher crude oil prices, and rising coal and mineral prices. Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara stated that state budget financing remains on track, with debt issuance conducted cautiously in line with market conditions. - In addition, Indonesia and Egypt agreed on four bilateral cooperation agreements during President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi's visit to Jakarta on 11 October 2026, covering strategic partnership, visa exemption for holders of diplomatic and official passports, statistical cooperation, and marine and fisheries affairs. Both countries also discussed potential collaboration in investment, the defense industry, trade, and the economy, although investment values and trade targets have not yet been announced. JCI closed up 1.04% at 6,093.76 in Friday's (09/10) trading. Amid this gain, foreign investors recorded a net sell of Rp29.63 billion across all markets and Rp141.50 billion in the regular market. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, accumulated foreign net sell reached Rp111.13 trillion. Foreign fund flows mainly went into ENRG, EMAS, ARCI, ICBP, PTRO, TPIA, SINI, ERAA, GGRM, and DSSA shares. Meanwhile, the largest foreign selling pressure was recorded in GOTO, BBRI, TLKM, PACK, AADI, BBNI, ASII, ITMG, HRTA, and INCO. In the foreign exchange market, the USD/IDR rate weakened 0.07% to Rp17,917 on 09 October 2026. More broadly, the Rupiah has weakened 1.82% over the past month and 7.90% over the past year. Technically, JCI managed a rebound and held above support at the FR 61.80% level (6,033), with RSI (14) beginning to rise to the 39.8 level. If JCI manages to strengthen, it has the potential to retest 6,134 (EMA10), followed by 6,179 and 6,214. Conversely, if it fails to hold above the 6,033 support, JCI is expected to be vulnerable to testing support at 5,979, and if it breaks down, could continue to the next support at 5,898 / 5,887. KIWOOM RESEARCH suggests investors could buy on weakness and wait for a strong buy signal to re-emerge.