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KSI Lunch Report 22 September 2026
Market Review (Session 1) In session 1, JCI closed down -1.11% to the level of 6,313.57. Market Prediction (Session 2) JCI: Index closed negative with bearish candle. JCI is expected to remain volatile with a tendency to weaken. • BULL: Price closed at 392 (-2.97%) and still above the support level. Prices still have the opportunity to strengthen as long as the support level holds. Beware if the price breaks below the support. • IMPC: Price closed at 1,580 (-3.07%) and breakdown support. Prices still have the opportunity to strengthen if the price back to above support level. Beware if the price breaks below the next support at 1,545. • MAPA: Price closed at 685 (-2.14%) and still buying range. Prices still have the opportunity to strengthen as long as the support level holds. Beware if the price breaks below the support. • NCKL: Price closed at 915 (-1.61%) and still support range. Prices still have the opportunity to strengthen as long as the support level holds. Beware if the price breaks below the support. News • PT. Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk. (PTBA) received two awards at the Katadata ESG Insight Award 2026 for its decarbonization governance and environmental performance through fleet electrification and Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage technologies to support its journey toward Net Zero Emission. • PT. Victoria Investama Tbk. (VICO) will distribute a cash dividend of Rp121.73 billion, or Rp8 per share, approved in an extraordinary general meeting on September 18, 2026, with the Regular Market Cum date on September 28, Ex date on September 29, Recording date on September 30, and Payment on October 22, 2026.
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KSI Technical Recommendation 22 September 2026
Jakarta Composite Index JCI closed down 0.88% at the 6,384.73 level on Monday's trading (09/21). Foreign investors booked a net sell of Rp503.12 billion in the regular market, bringing the YTD net sell accumulation to Rp101.83 trillion. Technically, JCI corrected again and closed at the 6,384.73 level, below the EMA10 and EMA20, and had broken below the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 6,451.53. JCI also remained below the EMA50 (6,430.20), so the correction pressure is starting to indicate a weakening medium-term trend. This position indicates short-term momentum tends to be bearish, with the 6,377 – 6,384 area becoming the nearest support that needs to be maintained. The RSI (14) fell to 42.64, moving back below the 50 level, indicating bullish momentum is weakening further. Should JCI fail to hold above 6,377, correction pressure could potentially continue toward 6,290 (FR 61.80%). Conversely, should a rebound occur, JCI needs to break back through 6,430 – 6,452, followed by 6,486 – 6,493 as the nearest resistance, before testing the 6,552 – 6,590 area. KIWOOM RESEARCH advises investors to wait & see while monitoring JCI's ability to hold above 6,377 as a key support area. Investors who have already profited can apply a trailing stop or gradual profit-taking, while buy accumulation should be done selectively after rebound confirmation appears and JCI breaks back through the nearest resistance area. ADVISE: Wait & see; Set your trailing stop or gradual profit-taking, and accumulation buy. Stockpick: BULL, IMPC, MAPA, NCKL.
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KSI Morning Report 22 September 2026
KIWOOM Morning Equity – 22 September 2026 This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. OIL PRICES AND US YIELDS EASE, IMPROVING GLOBAL SENTIMENT; INDONESIA STRENGTHENS ENERGY AND HOUSING RESILIENCE US MARKET: Wall Street closed higher on Monday's trading (09/21/26), supported by falling US Treasury yields and easing oil prices, which helped reduce concerns over macroeconomic pressure. S&P 500 rose 1.49% to 7,764.70, Nasdaq Composite surged 2.26% to 27,122.09, posting a new record close, while Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened 0.71% to 52,048.83. The gains were mainly supported by a rally in tech and AI stocks, with Meta surging 11.4%, AMD rising 9.9% to first surpass a US$1 trillion market cap, and Intel strengthening 12.1%. INDONESIA: The government is preparing around 1–2 million hectares of land to support the development of raw materials for the E20 gasoline blend program, with sugarcane, corn, and cassava as the main commodities. The Ministry of Agriculture will map out available land, including around 1.3 million hectares of released land, prioritizing areas suitable for ethanol raw material crops without prioritizing forest clearing. In the initial phase, the government is preparing corn seed assistance for 1 million hectares along with support for agricultural tools and machinery, while sugarcane is one of the main commodities due to its large land requirements. The government estimates the need for up to 2 million hectares can be met through land mapping in Java, Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua, with E20 implementation targeted within around the next two years. - In the housing sector, the government is pushing to accelerate the disbursement of subsidized homes through the FLPP scheme, after realization through September 21, 2026 reached only 154,034 units, or 44% of this year's target of 350,000 units. BP Tapera will optimize its human resources and expand outreach to civil servants (ASN), government employees with work agreements (PPPK), industrial estate workers, and developers. On the supply side, licensing constraints and protected rice field land (LSD) remain a concern, while the scheme to recycle problem home assets owned by banks could potentially add around 82,000 units to supply. - In addition, Fitch Ratings affirmed PT. Danantara Investment Management's (DIM) credit rating at BBB with a negative outlook, while the national rating remained at AAA(idn) with a stable outlook. Fitch considers the rating to reflect DIM's strong linkage with the Indonesian government and expectations of extraordinary government support as a sovereign wealth fund. The negative outlook on the international rating follows the Indonesian government's outlook, while the national rating reflects DIM's relatively stable credit position compared to other domestic entities. JCI closed down 0.88% at the 6,384.73 level on Monday's trading (09/21). Foreign investors booked a net sell of Rp503.12 billion in the regular market, bringing the YTD net sell accumulation to Rp101.83 trillion. Foreign fund inflows were mainly directed into TINS, PTRO, COIN, CUAN, and BBRI, while the largest selling pressure was recorded in BMRI, ANTM, BBCA, TLKM, and MDKA. In the foreign exchange market, the Rupiah was relatively stable around Rp17,810 per USD after weakening for seven consecutive sessions. Market participants are now watching this week's Bank Indonesia policy decision, which could potentially be a catalyst for rupiah and domestic market movement. Technically, JCI corrected again and closed at the 6,384.73 level, below the EMA10 and EMA20, and had broken below the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 6,451.53. JCI also remained below the EMA50 (6,430.20), so the correction pressure is starting to indicate a weakening medium-term trend. This position indicates short-term momentum tends to be bearish, with the 6,377 – 6,384 area becoming the nearest support that needs to be maintained. The RSI (14) fell to 42.64, moving back below the 50 level, indicating bullish momentum is weakening further. Should JCI fail to hold above 6,377, correction pressure could potentially continue toward 6,290 (FR 61.80%). Conversely, should a rebound occur, JCI needs to break back through 6,430 – 6,452, followed by 6,486 – 6,493 as the nearest resistance, before testing the 6,552 – 6,590 area. KIWOOM RESEARCH advises investors to wait & see while monitoring JCI's ability to hold above 6,377 as a key support area. Investors who have already profited can apply a trailing stop or gradual profit-taking, while buy accumulation should be done selectively after rebound confirmation appears and JCI breaks back through the nearest resistance area.
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Equity Update - BBRI (1H26)
Kiwoom Research | 1H26 Equity Update - 21 September 2026 PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (BBRI) Strong 1H26 Earnings With Early Micro Recovery Key Takeaways: - 1H26 Earnings Growth Accelerated. BBRI booked PATMI of IDR 31.2tn (+17.5% YoY), supported by PPOP growth of +12.8% and NII growth of +9.9%, while lower funding costs helped contain NIM pressure and CoC improved to 3.1%. - Corporate and Commercial Led Loan Growth. Total loans rose 16.2% YoY to IDR 1,645.5tn, led by Corporate (+47.1% YoY) and Commercial (+58.1% YoY), while Micro remained the largest segment at IDR 714.1tn and showed early sequential recovery. - Micro Asset Quality Showed Early Improvement. Consolidated gross NPL declined to 2.90% and LAR improved to 9.1%, while Micro NPL formation fell to 4.5% and Micro CoC to 3.8%. Management also raised FY26 loan-growth guidance to 8–10%. Recommendation: “BUY” We maintain our “BUY” recommendation on BBRI. Our valuation is based on a blended approach combining DDM and P/BV. We determine a 12-month target price of IDR 4,000, implying a 20.85% upside potential from the last close of IDR 3,310. At our target price, BBRI would trade at a 2026F P/BV of 1.8x, below its 3-year average of 2.06x. Downside risks include prolonged NIM pressure, tighter liquidity, weaker-than-expected loan growth, higher credit costs, and a slower recovery in Micro asset quality. Kevin Yudha Pratama Equity Research KIWOOM SEKURITAS INDONESIA
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KSI Lunch Report 21 September 2026
Market Review (Session 1) In session 1, JCI closed down -0.27% to the level of 6,423.51. Market Prediction (Session 2) JCI: Index closed negative with bearish candle. JCI is expected to remain volatile and maintain its negative movement. • ADMR: Price closed at 1,555 (-2.20%) and still above the support level. Prices still have the opportunity to strengthen as long as the support level holds. Beware if the price breaks below the support. • MBMA: Price closed at 530 (-2.75%) and still support range. Prices still have the opportunity to strengthen as long as the support level holds. Beware if the price breaks below the support. • MEDC: Price closed at 1,475 (+1.03%) and highest at 1,500 (+2.74%). Prices still have the opportunity to strengthen to the target. Be careful if the price reverses into a bearish candle or weakening. • MTEL: Price closed at 498 (-0.40%) and still buying range. Prices still have the opportunity to strengthen as long as the support level holds. Beware if the price breaks below the support. News • PT. Sinar Eka Selaras Tbk. (ERAL) and its subsidiaries signed a Credit Facility Addition agreement with PT. Bank Central Asia Tbk. (BBCA) on September 16, 2026, obtaining an increased Time Loan Facility of Rp600 billion and Multi Facility Credit of USD10,000,000, SGD3,500,000, Rp540 billion, and JPY50 million valid until May 13, 2027. • PT. Tunggal Jaya Investama, as a shareholder of PT. Impack Pratama Industri Tbk. (IMPC), purchased 3,150,000 shares at Rp1,646 per share and 200,000 shares at Rp1,672 per share on September 15 and September 17, 2026, for investment purposes with direct ownership, increasing its stake to 21.096 billion shares (38.42%).
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KSI Weekly Report (21 to 25 September 2026)
Market Data In last week’s trading, Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) closed at 6,441.16, down 1.53%. Foreign investors recorded a net sell of IDR 2.95 trillion across all markets and a net sell of IDR 2.90 trillion in the Regular Market. Foreign investors recorded net inflows into BRMS (IDR 367.1B), ANTM (IDR 184.8B), AADI (IDR 108.4B), EMAS (IDR 104.1B), and ERAA (IDR 67.8B). Meanwhile, the largest foreign net selling was recorded in BMRI (IDR 702.5B), BBCA (IDR 626.8B), BBNI (IDR 204.4B), BUMI (IDR 178.7B), and ADRO (IDR 169.7B). Global sentiment: Oil prices fell below US$100/bbl as concerns over supply disruptions eased, with Saudi Arabia reportedly moving around 2.8 million bpd through the Strait of Hormuz over the past six days, significantly higher than around 700,000 bpd in August. China and South Korea remain the main buyers of oil shipped through Hormuz, while China’s refined fuel exports reached 6.01 million tons in August, up 12.7% YoY. Nevertheless, energy-driven inflation remains a concern as higher energy prices could put renewed pressure on consumer inflation and limit room for monetary easing. This was reflected in a rebound in the 10-year US Treasury yield, while the Fed maintained a hawkish stance after raising interest rates last week, with a majority of FOMC members still seeing a need for another rate hike. Domestic sentiment: The government confirmed that the placement of up to IDR 200 trillion of excess budget funds (SAL) in the banking sector will continue through end-2026 and be extended until July 2027, providing greater funding certainty for banks while potentially lowering funding costs and supporting credit expansion. However, the effectiveness of the policy will depend on how effectively the additional liquidity is channeled into the real sector, particularly through stronger productive lending and lower lending rates. Meanwhile, the government has begun developing a strategy for E50 bioethanol-blended fuel as part of its efforts to achieve energy self-sufficiency. The initiative still faces challenges, including limited bioethanol production capacity, the need for new processing facilities, pricing framework certainty, land availability, and readiness of the domestic automotive industry. This week’s economic calendar: In the US, key releases include the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Prev: 4; Cons: 5), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Prev: 53.9; Cons: 53.6), Initial Jobless Claims (Prev: 196K; Cons: 202K), Durable Goods Orders MoM (Prev: 1.1%; Cons: -0.5%), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prev: 51.7; Cons: 47.8). In China, investors will monitor the 1Y Loan Prime Rate (LPR) (Prev: 3.0%; Cons: 3.0%) and 5Y LPR (Prev: 3.5%; Cons: 3.5%). In Indonesia, key indicators include the BI Rate (Prev: 5.75%; Forecast: 5.75%), Deposit Facility Rate (Prev: 4.75%; Forecast: 4.75%), Lending Facility Rate (Prev: 6.50%; Forecast: 6.50%), Loan Growth YoY (Prev: 13.58%; Cons: 15.0%), and M2 Money Supply YoY (Prev: 8.3%). Stockpick: AVIA, BBRI, INCO.
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KSI Technical Recommendation 21 September 2026
Jakarta Composite Index JCI closed down 0.33% at 6,441.16 on Friday (09/18), amid foreign investor selling pressure reaching Rp1.78 trillion in the regular market, bringing the YTD net sell accumulation to Rp101.33 trillion. Technically, JCI corrected again and closed at the 6,441.16 level, below the EMA10 (6,508.57) and EMA20 (6,504.24), and moved back below the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 6,451.53. However, JCI still held slightly above the EMA50 (6,432.06), so the correction pressure has not fully changed the medium-term trend. This position indicates short-term momentum tends to be bearish, with the 6,432 – 6,377 area becoming an important support that needs to be maintained. The RSI (14) fell to 46.69, moving back below the 50 level, indicating bullish momentum is starting to weaken. Should JCI fail to hold above 6,432 – 6,377, correction pressure could potentially continue toward 6,290 (FR 61.80%). Conversely, should a rebound occur, JCI needs to break back through 6,452 – 6,504, followed by 6,509 – 6,552 as the nearest resistance, before testing the 6,590 – 6,732 area. KIWOOM RESEARCH advises investors to wait & see while monitoring JCI's ability to hold above 6,432 – 6,377 as a key support area. Investors who have already profited can apply a trailing stop or gradual profit-taking, while buy accumulation should be done selectively after rebound confirmation appears and JCI breaks back through the nearest resistance area. ADVISE: Wait & see; Set your trailing stop or gradual profit-taking, and accumulation buy. Stockpick: ADMR, MBMA, MEDC, MTEL.
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KSI Morning Report 21 September 2026
KIWOOM Morning Equity – 21 September 2026 This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. GLOBAL SENTIMENT REMAINS MIXED, INDONESIA MAINTAINS LIQUIDITY SUPPORT US MARKET: Wall Street closed mixed on Friday's trading (09/18/26). S&P 500 rose 0.17% to 7,650.50, Nasdaq Composite strengthened 0.39% to 26,522.54, while Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.18% to 51,682.64. The gains in S&P 500 and Nasdaq were mainly supported by tech and semiconductor stocks, with Lam Research, Seagate Technology, and Applied Materials among the top performers. Conversely, IBM, Disney, and Nike were the main drags on Dow Jones, with Nike falling to its lowest level in five years. INDONESIA: The government confirmed the policy of placing up to Rp200 trillion in Budget Surplus (SAL) funds in banks will continue through the end of 2026 and be extended until July 2027, despite the change in Finance Minister. Currently, the SAL placement position stands at around Rp299 trillion, while the placement level the government will maintain is Rp200 trillion. This policy is expected to provide funding certainty for Himbara (state-owned banks), reduce reliance on high-cost deposits, and lower the cost of funds to support credit expansion. On the liquidity side, BNI has an LDR of 86.88% and Mandiri 94.37% as of August 2026, while BTN faces tighter liquidity with an LDR of 96.40% and BRI stands at 89.69% as of July 2026. The SAL extension could potentially support banking liquidity, though its effectiveness will depend on the channeling of funds to productive sectors. - In addition, digital economy tax revenue reached around Rp11.2 trillion through August 2026, consisting of PMSE VAT of Rp8.38 trillion, SIPP Tax of Rp1.67 trillion, fintech tax of Rp878.18 billion, and crypto asset tax of Rp268.95 billion. Cumulatively since 2022, digital economy tax revenue has reached Rp57.23 trillion, with PMSE VAT as the largest contributor at Rp44.05 trillion. Through August 2026, the Directorate General of Taxes (DJP) has appointed 277 PMSE (e-commerce) businesses as VAT collectors, indicating an increasingly broad digital tax base. This trend could potentially strengthen state revenue while creating more equal tax treatment between digital and conventional businesses. JCI closed down 0.33% at 6,441.16 on Friday (09/18), amid foreign investor selling pressure reaching Rp1.78 trillion in the regular market, bringing the YTD net sell accumulation to Rp101.33 trillion. Foreign fund inflows remained concentrated in ANTM, BRMS, MDKA, AADI, and INCO, while the largest selling occurred in BBCA, BMRI, AMMN, TLKM, and DSSA. On the macro side, the Rupiah weakened again above Rp17,750/USD, reflecting external pressure amid the US Dollar remaining at elevated levels after reaching a seven-week high. Technically, JCI corrected again and closed at the 6,441.16 level, below the EMA10 (6,508.57) and EMA20 (6,504.24), and moved back below the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 6,451.53. However, JCI still held slightly above the EMA50 (6,432.06), so the correction pressure has not fully changed the medium-term trend. This position indicates short-term momentum tends to be bearish, with the 6,432 – 6,377 area becoming an important support that needs to be maintained. The RSI (14) fell to 46.69, moving back below the 50 level, indicating bullish momentum is starting to weaken. Should JCI fail to hold above 6,432 – 6,377, correction pressure could potentially continue toward 6,290 (FR 61.80%). Conversely, should a rebound occur, JCI needs to break back through 6,452 – 6,504, followed by 6,509 – 6,552 as the nearest resistance, before testing the 6,590 – 6,732 area. KIWOOM RESEARCH advises investors to wait & see while monitoring JCI's ability to hold above 6,432 – 6,377 as a key support area. Investors who have already profited can apply a trailing stop or gradual profit-taking, while buy accumulation should be done selectively after rebound confirmation appears and JCI breaks back through the nearest resistance area.