KSI Morning Report 10 July 2026
July 10, 2026
KIWOOM Morning Equity – 10 July 2026
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AI REBOUND OFFSETS GEOPOLITICAL RISKS, IMF MAINTAINS INDONESIA’S GROWTH OUTLOOK
US MARKET: Wall Street closed higher in Thursday's trading (09/07/26), driven by a continued rebound in semiconductor stocks amid a number of positive developments in the technology sector. S&P 500 index rose 0.8% to 7,543.64, Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.3% to 26,206.89, while Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened 0.3% to 52,487.41. The strengthening was led by chip and AI stocks after investors re-accumulated following a sharp correction in the previous several sessions.
INDONESIA: The Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) reported that the number of issuers included in the High Shareholding Concentration (HSC) list decreased to 14 companies after PT. Lima Dua Lima Tiga Tbk. (LUCY) exited the list on July 02, 2026. BEI emphasized that HSC status is not a sanction, but rather part of efforts to increase market transparency, free float, and stock liquidity through periodic evaluations together with KSEI. The reduction in the number of issuers on the HSC list reflects improvements in stock ownership structure and is expected to increase the quality and efficiency of the Indonesian capital market.
- On the macroeconomic side, the IMF maintained its economic growth projection for Indonesia at 5.0% in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027, amid a slowing economic trend globally and regionally. This unchanged projection reflects the IMF's confidence in the resilience of Indonesia's economic fundamentals, primarily supported by domestic consumption and investment. Compared to a number of other countries that experienced downward revisions, Indonesia's stable projection has the potential to safeguard investor confidence and become a positive sentiment for the domestic financial market in the medium term.
JCI closed higher by 0.67% to the level of 5,912.44 after moving in the range of 5,839.67 – 5,912.44. Foreign investors again recorded a net sell of Rp352.33 billion in the Regular Market and Rp643.25 billion across all markets, bringing the cumulative YTD net sell to Rp90.30 trillion. Foreign selling pressure primarily occurred in BBRI, MAPI, ASII, BUKA, and DSSA, while BMRI, RAJA, DEWA, BRPT, and BBCA recorded net buys. The Rupiah weakened close to Rp18,100/US$, pressured by a strengthening US dollar amid rising Middle East geopolitical tensions and weak domestic data. Indonesia's Retail Sales were recorded down 3.9% YoY in May 2026, deeper than the 3.7% YoY contraction in April and becoming the deepest decline since May 2023, reflecting a weakening in household consumption amid ongoing high inflation and non-subsidized fuel price hikes. Technically, JCI managed to hold above the EMA10 (5,891), indicating that selling pressure is beginning to ease. As long as it is able to maintain that level, the index has the opportunity to continue its technical rebound to test the EMA20 at 5,950 as initial confirmation of a minor uptrend formation. Even so, the primary trend remains bearish because JCI is still moving below the EMA50 (6,308) and is within a downtrend channel pattern. The RSI (14) increased to 45.72, reflecting an improvement in momentum though it has not yet entered the bullish zone. As long as JCI holds above the 5,900 area, the opportunity for further strengthening remains open toward 5,987, followed by 6,045 – 6,107. Conversely, if it falls back below 5,900, the index risks testing support at 5,839 – 5,805, before heading toward the gap area around 5,744. Confirmation of a trend change becoming more positive still requires a breakout above the EMA20 supported by an increase in transaction volume as well as continued foreign investor accumulation.