KIWOOM Morning Equity – 14 July 2026 This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS SPARK RISK-OFF SENTIMENT, S&P REAFFIRMS INDONESIA’S STABLE CREDIT OUTLOOK US MARKET: Wall Street closed lower in Monday's trading (13/07/26), triggered by a sell-off in technology and semiconductor stocks amid the resurgence of geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. S&P 500 index fell 0.8% to 7,515.34, Nasdaq Composite weakened 1.6% to 25,873.18, while Dow Jones Industrial Average corrected 0.3% to 52,498.64. The heaviest pressure came from AI and semiconductor stocks, with Nvidia down 3.5%, Broadcom -4.0%, AMD -4.2%, Intel -6.1%, and SK Hynix ADR plunging 8.6% following its strong debut on the Nasdaq last week. INDONESIA: S&P Global Ratings maintained Indonesia's sovereign credit rating at BBB with a Stable outlook as well as its A-2 short-term rating. S&P assesses that the weakening of Indonesia's fiscal and external conditions is temporary, triggered by high energy prices, global interest rates, rupiah weakness, and rising policy uncertainties. The agency projects that Indonesia's fundamentals will improve alongside a rise in commodity prices, recovery in state revenues, and more consistent policy implementation, including the optimization of natural resource sector management. S&P also reaffirmed its confidence that the government will keep the APBN deficit managed below 3% of GDP as the primary anchor of fiscal policy. This rating confirmation becomes a positive sentiment for the market as it reflects rating agency confidence in the resilience of Indonesia's economic fundamentals amid global challenges. - On another side, the business community projects that Indonesia's industrial sector will improve gradually in the second half of 2026, though it remains overshadowed by global uncertainties stemming from geopolitical dynamics. Apindo stated that business actors continue to apply cautious optimism, along with the beginning of easing pressures from energy prices and logistics costs. However, a number of domestic indicators still show a moderation in industrial activity, reflected in the June Manufacturing PMI which sat at 46.9, the decline in the Industrial Confidence Index (IKI) to 52.90, as well as the weakening Real Sales Index (IPR). In addition, weak export demand and an unrecovered global supply chain remain key challenges. Therefore, although Indonesia's economic outlook remains supported by macro stability and fiscal credibility, the acceleration of real sector recovery is still highly dependent on geopolitical stability, improvements in global demand, strengthening domestic purchasing power, investment acceleration, deregulation, and government policy certainty. JCI closed higher by 1.92% to the level of 6,037.84 after moving in the range of 5,898.15 – 6,037.84. Despite the index strengthening, foreign investors still recorded a net sell of Rp412.50 billion in the regular market and Rp437.66 billion across all markets (all market), bringing the cumulative year-to-date (YTD) net sell to Rp91.00 trillion. Foreign selling action primarily occurred in BBCA, MAPI, ASII, TINS, and DEWA, while net buying was recorded in TPIA, BRPT, BMRI, BRMS, and BUMI. In the foreign exchange market, the Rupiah weakened 0.43% to Rp18,158 per US dollar, extending its decline for the second consecutive day along with rising demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset due to heating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over rising energy prices. Technically, JCI successfully broke above its immediate resistance as well as moving back above the EMA10 and EMA20, indicating that selling pressure is beginning to ease and opening up opportunities for the continuation of a short-term uptrend. As long as it is able to hold above the breakout area, JCI has the potential to continue its strengthening toward the range of 6,121 – 6,171. If it is able to break above that area, the strengthening has the potential to continue toward the dynamic resistance of the EMA50 around 6,285. Meanwhile, the immediate support sits at 5,987 and 5,949, with the next strong support at 5,898 if selling pressure rises again. The RSI (14) rose to 50.9 and successfully returned above the 50 level, indicating that bullish momentum is beginning to strengthen. KIWOOM RESEARCH advises investors to remain trend following by applying a trailing stop to lock in profits that have formed. Adding positions (averaging up) can be done gradually if JCI is able to maintain its momentum above the breakout area and continue its strengthening toward the 6,121 – 6,171 resistance.