KSI Morning Report 04 August 2026
August 04, 2026
KIWOOM Morning Equity – 04 August 2026
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EASING MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS LIFT MARKETS, INDONESIA’S PMI SIGNALS RECOVERY
US MARKET: Wall Street closed higher on Monday's trading (08/03/26), starting August with positive sentiment after a volatile performance throughout July. The gains were driven by easing geopolitical tensions after President Donald Trump postponed a planned military strike on Iran. S&P 500 rose 1.5% to 7,600.50, Nasdaq Composite surged 2.1% to 25,913.90, while Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened 1.3% to 53,178.41, also recording its highest closing level since July 06.
INDONESIA: Indonesia's inflation eased in July 2026, recording deflation of 0.14% MoM, bringing annual inflation down to 2.88% YoY from 3.34% in June. This slowdown was mainly driven by falling food and non-subsidized fuel prices, and is considered still temporary. Going forward, inflationary pressure could potentially rise again due to the risk of food supply disruption from the El Niño phenomenon and increased demand through the Free Nutritious Meal Program (MBG). This condition is expected to keep Bank Indonesia maintaining monetary policy focused on exchange rate stability and inflation control.
- In addition, Indonesia's Manufacturing PMI re-entered expansion territory at 50.2 in July 2026 from 46.9 in June, supported by higher output, stable new orders, and increased employment. The government is also preparing an economic stimulus package, including incentives for electric car and motorcycle purchases, to maintain purchasing power, boost the national electric vehicle industry, and support economic growth in the second half of 2026, which is projected to improve through accelerated government spending, increased investment, and coordination with Bank Indonesia in maintaining financial system liquidity.
JCI closed down 0.03% at the 6,234.50 level. Throughout Monday's (08/03) trading, JCI moved in a range of 6,212.55 – 6,273.33. Foreign investors booked a net sell of Rp758.71 billion in the Regular Market, while across all markets they recorded a net sell of Rp708.00 billion. Foreign fund inflows were mainly directed through TLKM, BBCA, GGRM, TINS, and ICBP, while the largest foreign selling pressure was recorded in TPIA, AMMN, BMRI, BBRI, and ASII. Technically, JCI moved sideways and remained above the EMA10 (6,187) and EMA20 (6,144), though still slightly below the EMA50 (6,243), which is now an important resistance level. The index's movement also continued to hold above the ascending trendline, indicating the short-term rebound trend remains intact with the potential to form a higher low. The RSI (14) rose to 56.01, reflecting bullish momentum strengthening again with room to continue rising. As long as JCI can hold above the 6,200 – 6,180 area, the index has room to test 6,243 as the nearest resistance. If it manages to break out above that level with rising volume, the strengthening could potentially continue toward 6,377 up to 6,723. Conversely, if it falls back below 6,180, JCI risks testing the support area at 6,144, then 5,987, before continuing its uptrend. KIWOOM RESEARCH advises traders to consider a buy on breakout if JCI manages to break through 6,243 accompanied by rising volume. Meanwhile, investors who already hold positions can hold or average up on stocks that remain above the support area, applying a trailing stop around the 6,180 level.