KSI Morning Report 31 August 2026

August 31, 2026
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KIWOOM Morning Equity – 31 August 2026 This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. HAWKISH FED WEIGHS ON WALL STREET; INDONESIA’S DHE AND INVESTMENT OUTLOOK IN FOCUS US MARKET: Wall Street closed lower in Friday's trading (08/28/26), with pressure mainly coming from technology stocks and defensive sectors. Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly by 0.02%, while S&P 500 weakened 0.25% and Nasdaq Composite corrected 0.52%. NVIDIA was one of the main drags after plunging 4.58%, while PayPal slumped 12.71%. In contrast, Amazon surged 3.97%, followed by gains in Nike and McDonald's. Overall, declining stocks also dominated on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, reflecting fairly broad pressure across the US stock market. INDONESIA: The government granted relaxation of the obligation to place Export Proceeds (DHE) from Natural Resources (SDA) for 64 exporters in the mining sector through Article 18A of Government Regulation (PP) Number 21 of 2026, which applies to Export Customs Declarations (PPE) starting September 01, 2026. Exporters that meet the criteria are now only required to place a minimum of 30% of DHE SDA for at least three months, compared to the general provision that requires placement of 100% for a minimum of 12 months. Nevertheless, the entire or 100% of export proceeds must still be repatriated to the Indonesian Financial System. CORE Indonesia estimates this policy covers potential DHE of around US$30 billion–US$40 billion per year, mainly from companies in the nickel industry chain, nickel-based steel, Freeport, alumina, and other processed minerals. The relaxation provides greater liquidity flexibility for exporters, but at the same time reduces the amount of foreign exchange required to be held within the domestic financial system in the long term. - In addition, Jakarta recorded the highest investment realization nationally at Rp173.6 trillion in the first half of 2026, equivalent to 17.2% of total national investment, while also affirming its role as one of the main engines of the Indonesian economy with a contribution of 16.3% to national GDP in Q2 2026. The largest investment came from the transportation, warehousing, and telecommunications sectors, followed by services including web hosting and data centers, as well as trade. The government sees Jakarta as having great opportunities to become a future investment growth center through the development of the digital economy, artificial intelligence (AI), data centers, clean energy, advanced manufacturing, and financial services, with Indonesia's digital economy projected to reach US$360 billion by 2030. The Ministry of Investment and Downstreaming/BKPM will also strengthen licensing simplification, regulatory certainty, and debottlenecking mechanisms to accelerate the realization of investment projects and prepare Jakarta as one of the foundations for developing Indonesia's international financial center. JCI closed down 0.06% to the 6,518.12 level. Throughout Friday's trading (08/28), JCI moved in the range of 6,495.74 – 6,566.91. Foreign investors booked a net sell in the Regular Market of Rp442.38 billion. Foreign fund inflows mainly went into BBCA, BMRI, TPIA, BRPT, and DMAS, while the largest foreign selling pressure was recorded in DSSA, BUMI, EMAS, ISAT, and INET. On the other hand, the Rupiah reversed to strengthen to around Rp17,700/US$, as concerns over domestic risk following the demonstrations eased. Technically, JCI is still undergoing a reasonable correction and remains above the EMA10 (6,357), EMA20, and EMA50, and is still moving above the uptrend line. The RSI (14) is at the level of 60.35, still above the neutral area of 50 and indicating that bullish momentum has not entirely faded, but its movement, which is starting to flatten, indicates that investors need to watch out for potential consolidation. As long as JCI can hold above the EMA10 in the 6,357 area, the opportunity for strengthening remains open to retest the resistance at 6,551, before continuing to rise toward 6,635 and 6,733 (closing the gap area). Conversely, if selling pressure increases again and JCI breaks the support at 6,454, the index could correct toward 6,385 – 6,377 as strong support. KIWOOM RESEARCH suggests that the strategy to consider is to hold or buy on weakness selectively as long as JCI can hold above the support area, while investors need to increase caution if the index breaks support, as this could open up opportunities for deeper correction.