KSI Morning Report 01 September 2026
September 01, 2026
KIWOOM Morning Equity – 01 September 2026
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MARKETS ENTER SEPTEMBER CAUTIOUSLY; FED, INFLATION & HORMUZ IN FOCUS
US MARKET: Wall Street closed lower on Monday's trading (08/31/26), with Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.70% to 53,185.90, S&P 500 weakening 0.33% to around 7,686.14, and Nasdaq Composite falling 0.12% to 26,370.89. The weakness mainly reflected growing market concern over inflationary pressure and the prospect of tighter monetary policy ahead of September. Although the last trading day of August closed negative, all three major indices still posted monthly gains, supported by solid earnings performance and renewed stabilization in sentiment toward AI stocks.
INDONESIA: The government has set central government spending in the 2027 draft state budget (RAPBN) at Rp3,362.2 trillion, up Rp116.7 trillion, or 3.6%, from the 2026 outlook. However, this increase is considered not yet reflecting strong fiscal expansion, as the real expansion room after accounting for inflation is relatively limited. The government's main challenge is ensuring the quality and composition of spending can drive productivity, investment, job creation, and public purchasing power. The government is targeting the creation of 2.57–3.49 million jobs, a reduction in poverty to 6%–6.5%, and unemployment to 4.30%–4.87% by 2027.
- In addition, Pertamina Patra Niaga raised the prices of a number of non-subsidized fuels starting September 01, 2026, with Pertamax Turbo rising Rp1,300 to Rp19,600 per liter, Dexlite rising Rp4,000 to Rp23,700 per liter, and Pertamina Dex rising Rp4,050 to Rp25,200 per liter. Meanwhile, the prices of Pertalite, Pertamax, Pertamax Green 95, and Biosolar remain unchanged. The price adjustment was made taking into account global crude oil prices, the Rupiah exchange rate, taxes, and economic conditions and public purchasing power. The impact on inflation is expected to be relatively limited, as the increase only applies to certain non-subsidized fuel products, though it could potentially raise operational costs for the transportation, logistics, and industrial sectors that use non-subsidized diesel fuel.
JCI closed up 0.11% at the 6,525.48 level on Monday's trading (08/31), also posting a gain of 4.64% throughout August. During trading, JCI moved in a range of 6,476.18 – 6,528.10. Despite the index's gain, foreign investors still recorded a net sell of Rp710.56 billion in the Regular Market. Foreign fund inflows were mainly directed into BBRI, KOTA, BBNI, ADRO, and BBCA, while the largest selling pressure occurred in CPIN, EMAS, BUKA, UNVR, and ASII. Meanwhile, the Rupiah moved around Rp17,750 per US Dollar, with market sentiment also watching the appointment of Destry Damayanti as Governor of Bank Indonesia for the 2026–2031 term. Technically, JCI managed a slight rebound and remained above the EMA10 (6,467), EMA20, and EMA50, and still moved above the uptrend line. The RSI (14) rose again to the 60.7 level, still above the neutral area of 50 and indicating bullish momentum still has room to continue. As long as JCI can hold above the EMA10 in the 6,467 area, the chance of strengthening remains open to retest the 6,566 resistance, before continuing to rise toward 6,635 and 6,733 (closing the gap area). Conversely, should selling pressure increase again and JCI break through the 6,467 support, the index could correct toward 6,398 – 6,377 as its strong support. KIWOOM RESEARCH advises a strategy worth considering is to hold or selectively buy on weakness as long as JCI can hold above the support area, while investors need to increase caution should the index break through support, as this could open the chance for a deeper correction.