KSI Morning Report 03 September 2026

September 03, 2026
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KIWOOM Morning Equity – 03 September 2026 This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. WALL STREET REBOUNDS AS BOND YIELDS EASE; INDONESIA EYES 6% GROWTH ON STRONGER LIQUIDITY US MARKET: Wall Street closed higher on Wednesday's trading (09/02/26), after pressure in the bond market and the surge in oil prices began to ease. S&P 500 rose 0.46% to 7,666.60, Nasdaq Composite strengthened 0.45% to 26,217.83, while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.56% to 53,061.95. The market gains were mainly supported by a rally in Dell Technologies shares, which surged nearly 16% after posting results above expectations thanks to strong demand for AI-based servers, as well as a 3.2% rise in Nvidia. Stronger-than-expected US manufacturing orders data also helped support sentiment, though private employment data showed a slowdown. INDONESIA: The government and Commission XI of the DPR agreed on the basic macroeconomic assumptions in the 2027 draft state budget (RAPBN), targeting 6.0% economic growth, 2.5% inflation, a Rupiah exchange rate of Rp17,500 per US dollar, and a 10-year government bond (SBN) yield of 6.9%. The government also targets a poverty rate of 6.0%–6.5%, open unemployment of 4.30%–4.87%, the creation of 2.57–3.49 million new jobs, and GNI per capita of US$5,800–US$5,840. This 6% growth target reflects the government's ambition to accelerate the economy from its growth pattern of around 5%, though achieving it remains a challenge given Indonesia's economy grew 5.29% YoY in Q2 2026, slowing from 5.61% in the previous quarter. Accelerating growth requires an increase in productive investment, production capacity, productivity, and the role of the private sector for the target to be achieved sustainably. - In addition, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa is optimistic that bank credit growth can break through above 20% amid improving financial system liquidity. Base money (M0) growth of 18.3% in July 2026 is considered to indicate fairly strong liquidity conditions, while the placement of Budget Surplus (SAL) funds in the banking system also provided additional liquidity. With credit growth reaching only 13.58% as of July 2026, Purbaya sees there is still significant room to accelerate credit expansion should liquidity remain intact. This condition could potentially drive private sector growth and ultimately support significant economic growth above 6%, though its realization still depends on the effectiveness of liquidity transmission into credit, investment, and real sector activity. JCI closed down 0.06% at the 6,595.78 level on Wednesday's trading (09/02), after moving in a range of 6,561.00 – 6,629.54. Foreign investors recorded a net sell of Rp235.16 billion in the Regular Market, with the largest fund inflows into BBRI, BBCA, BMRI, SINI, and TAPG, while the largest selling pressure was recorded in TLKM, ADRO, ASII, PTRO, and TINS. The Rupiah weakened to around Rp17,780 per US Dollar, pressured by the US Dollar strengthening to its highest level in nearly three weeks and rising oil prices, which increased inflation concerns and expectations of tighter Fed policy. Technically, JCI remained sideways. The RSI (14) edged down slightly to the 63.8 level, indicating bullish momentum still has room to continue. As long as JCI can hold above the EMA10 in the 6,510 area, the chance of strengthening remains open to retest the 6,635 resistance and the chance of closing the gap area at the 6,733 level, with the next gap area at the 6,858 level. Conversely, should profit-taking occur, JCI could correct back toward support at 6,551 and 6,510 (EMA10) and 6,454. KIWOOM RESEARCH still advises a strategy worth considering is to hold or selectively average up as long as JCI can hold above the support area, while investors need to increase caution should the index break through support.