KSI Morning Report 08 September 2026
September 08, 2026
KIWOOM Morning Equity – 08 September 2026
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others.
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS & OIL PRICES RISE; INDONESIA’S FISCAL OUTLOOK IN FOCUS
US MARKET: US stock markets were closed on Monday (09/07/26) for Labor Day, so there was no regular trading on Wall Street. Investors will next monitor the market's response to stronger-than-expected US employment data and its implications for the Fed's policy direction in September.
INDONESIA: Commission XI of the DPR RI approved the Ministry of Finance's (Kemenkeu) 2027 budget ceiling of Rp49.80 trillion, with the largest allocation for the management support program at Rp45.81 trillion, followed by the state revenue management program at Rp3.62 trillion. In terms of echelon I units, the largest allocation went to the Secretariat General and the LPDP Public Service Agency (BLU) at Rp32.03 trillion, while the Directorate General of Taxes received Rp6.27 trillion. This budget approval is part of preparations for implementing the government's fiscal policy in 2027.
- In addition, the 2027 energy subsidy budget was revised down to Rp261.50 trillion from Rp272.95 trillion previously, mainly due to a lower 3 kg LPG consumption assumption of 8 million tons from 8.94 million tons. This policy could potentially pressure the purchasing power of low-income groups should the LPG quota fail to meet demand, given that 2026 consumption is estimated to reach 8.67 million tons. However, should the government still meet LPG needs, the direct impact on purchasing power would be relatively limited, though the gap between actual needs and the budget could potentially become an underpayment to Pertamina and increase the state budget burden the following year.
JCI closed down 0.25% at the 6,619.67 level on Monday's trading (09/07), moving in a range of 6,610.93 – 6,667.75. Foreign investors recorded a net sell of Rp590.18 billion in the Regular Market, with the largest accumulation in BUMI, PTBA, AADI, IATA, and DMAS, while selling pressure was mainly seen in TPIA, CUAN, ISAT, KLBF, and BMRI. The Rupiah held around Rp17,650/US$, staying below Rp17,700 for a third session, supported by August foreign exchange reserves strengthening to US$146.5 billion and a more prudent fiscal outlook. Technically, JCI is starting to form a swing high as an early signal of a potential correction, while the RSI (14) fell to 62, indicating bullish momentum is starting to weaken. JCI could potentially undergo a healthy correction toward support at 6,568 (EMA10), 6,551, and 6,525. However, should it manage to rebound, the index has room to retest resistance at 6,667 – 6,704 and continue closing the gap at 6,723. KIWOOM RESEARCH still advises a strategy of holding or selectively buying on weakness as long as JCI can hold above the support area, with heightened caution should the index break through that support level.