KSI Morning Report 16 September 2026
September 16, 2026
KIWOOM Morning Equity – 16 September 2026
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GLOBAL PRESSURES RISE AHEAD OF THE FED, INDONESIA MAINTAINS FISCAL CREDIBILITY
US MARKET: Wall Street closed lower on Tuesday's trading (09/15/26). S&P 500 fell 0.45% to 7,585.73, Nasdaq Composite weakened 0.78% to 25,981.57, while Dow Jones Industrial Average corrected 0.63% to 52,093.11. The weakness occurred amid the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking through the 5% level and rising pressure on the market ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
INDONESIA: The change in Finance Minister from Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa to Suahasil Nazara has drawn attention to the direction of tax refund policy. The Directorate General of Taxes (DJP) confirmed that refunds will continue to be processed selectively, measurably, in a planned manner, and with clear direction, particularly for taxpayers with good compliance records, while other taxpayers will continue to undergo audits per standard procedures. The policy direction going forward will follow Suahasil's guidance, taking into account development funding needs and state budget deficit management.
- In addition, the government still has a global bond issuance quota of around US$2 billion through the end of 2026. The Ministry of Finance stated the timing and denomination of the issuance will still be adjusted to market conditions, with options including USD, EUR, RMB, or JPY. This step is part of diversifying the government's funding sources after previously issuing a CNY7 billion, or around US$1.03 billion, Panda Bond.
JCI closed down 1.13% at the 6,461.15 level on Tuesday's trading (09/15/26), moving in a range of 6,461.01 – 6,549.60. Foreign investors recorded a net sell of Rp354.16 billion in the Regular Market. The largest foreign fund inflows went into ANTM, BUMI, TLKM, BRMS, and AMMN, while the largest selling pressure was recorded in BMRI, BBRI, BBNI, CPIN, and ASII. The Rupiah weakened toward Rp17,700 per US Dollar, extending its weakness for a fourth consecutive session, in line with a stronger US Dollar Index ahead of the Fed's policy decision. Technically, JCI corrected again and closed below the EMA10 (6,559) and EMA20 (6,524), but still held above the EMA50 (6,430) and slightly above the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 6,448. The RSI (14) fell to 47.91, moving back below the 50 level and indicating diminishing bullish momentum, so the risk of further correction remains open. Should JCI fail to hold above 6,448 – 6,430, selling pressure could potentially continue toward 6,377, then 6,288, the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement area. Conversely, should a rebound occur, JCI needs to break back through the EMA20 at 6,524, followed by the EMA10 at 6,559, before testing the 6,700 – 6,707 area as the main resistance. KIWOOM RESEARCH advises investors to wait & see while monitoring the 6,448 – 6,430 area as an important support. Investors who have already profited can apply a trailing stop or gradual profit-taking should JCI break below the EMA50, while buy accumulation should be done selectively after rebound confirmation appears above the EMA20 and EMA10.