KSI Morning Report 20 October 2026

October 20, 2026
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KIWOOM Morning Equity – 20 October 2026 This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. GLOBAL TECH REBOUND FACES GEOPOLITICAL RISKS, IHSG PLUNGES AMID INTENSE SELLING PRESSURE US MARKET: Wall Street closed mixed on Monday (19/10/26), with strength in technology stocks supporting S&P 500 and Nasdaq amid pressure on banking stocks. S&P 500 rose 0.41% to 7,690.73, Nasdaq Composite strengthened 1.11% to 26,430.89, while Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly by 0.07% to 51,966.03. Micron, Intel, and Amazon shares led the rebound following the previous week's sell-off in the AI sector, reflecting a return of investor buying interest even as the market remains overshadowed by concerns over the sustainability of AI investment and its financing risks. ???? INDONESIA: The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) will exclude all stocks with High Shareholding Concentration (HSC) from JCI calculation. This policy aims to improve market transparency and integrity so that JCI better reflects fair market conditions. Although no longer affecting the index's movement, stocks classified as HSC can still be traded on the exchange. - In addition, downstream processing sector investment realization for January-September 2026 reached Rp480 trillion, growing 11.3% YoY and contributing 31.2% to total national investment of Rp1,539.2 trillion. In Q3 2026, downstream investment rose to Rp179.9 trillion, with the mineral sector dominating at a cumulative Rp335.1 trillion. Investment remained dominated by foreign direct investment (PMA) at Rp357.6 trillion, or 75% of the total, while 78% of investment was located outside Java. The government will continue to promote downstream processing to strengthen industrialization, boost technology transfer, expand employment absorption, and strengthen Indonesia's position in the global supply chain. - On the fiscal side, the government estimates state budget spending in Q4 2026 will reach around Rp1,300 trillion, higher than Rp1,200 trillion in the same period the previous year. The Ministry of Finance affirmed that budget efficiency will focus on optimizing program implementation rather than cutting spending, including through improved governance of the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program. The government will also continue priority programs and food assistance to support public consumption, while maintaining the 2026 state budget deficit at 2.58% of GDP in line with the government's outlook. JCI closed plunging 3.64% to the 4,996.61 level in Monday's (19/10/26) trading. Foreign investors booked a net sell of Rp2.28 trillion in the regular market, or a net sell of Rp1.72 trillion across all markets, while cash and negotiated transactions still recorded a net buy of Rp558.40 billion. Accumulated foreign net sell YTD reached Rp116.44 trillion. The largest foreign selling pressure occurred in BBRI, BBCA, TLKM, BMRI, AADI, BRIS, PTBA, ERAA, ADMR, and ULTJ, while foreign fund flows went into BBNI, INDF, MAPA, UNTR, EMAS, MEDC, INKP, ANTM, TAPG, and INCO. The Rupiah traded at around Rp18,040 per US Dollar on Monday, pressured by a stronger Dollar amid a weaker Euro and rising Russia-Ukraine tension. Technically, JCI moved lower again but rebounded slightly from its lowest point. RSI (14) fell to the 14.82 level, indicating oversold conditions, which opens the possibility of a technical rebound. If JCI manages to rebound above the 4,999 level, there is a chance of strengthening toward the nearest resistance at 5,100 – 5,185, and if it breaks through, could go on to retest 5,332. However, if selling pressure continues, the index could potentially continue weakening toward the 4,456 (FR 161.80%), 4,173 / 4,000 area. Investors are advised to remain cautious, apply a selective buy on weakness strategy, and wait for confirmation of a trend reversal before accumulating more aggressively.