KSI Weekly Report (26 to 30 October 2026)
October 26, 2026
Market Data
Last week, Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) closed at 5,439.26, declining by 4.90%. Foreign investors recorded a net sell of IDR 6.78 trillion across the entire market, while the regular market recorded a net sell of IDR 8.03 trillion. Conversely, the cash and negotiated markets recorded a combined net buy of IDR 1.25 trillion. The largest foreign net buys in the regular market were recorded in AMMN (IDR 97.0 billion), DMAS (IDR 83.5 billion), ENRG (IDR 58.6 billion), TPIA (IDR 56.2 billion), and MAPA (IDR 56.0 billion). Meanwhile, the largest foreign net sells were recorded in BBCA (IDR 2,896.8 billion), BBRI (IDR 2,114.2 billion), TLKM (IDR 572.8 billion), BMRI (IDR 501.3 billion), and BRIS (IDR 317.2 billion).
Brent crude oil prices rose by more than 6% over the week, surpassing USD 116 per barrel and reaching their highest level in more than four years amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the possibility of renewed US and Israeli strikes against Iran. US President Donald Trump stated that Washington was not negotiating with Tehran and indicated that developments could occur in the near term. The escalation has heightened concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supplies, driving energy prices higher and increasing inflationary risks that could influence the global monetary policy outlook.
Fitch Ratings projects Indonesia’s economic growth to slow to 5.2% in 2026, below the government’s 5.4% target, amid reduced government spending momentum in the second half of the year and higher global energy prices. Meanwhile, broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3% YoY to IDR 10,587.9 trillion in September 2026, accelerating from 8.2% in the previous month. However, bank lending growth slowed to 12.7% YoY from 13.3%, while base money (M0) growth decelerated to 9.3% from 16.3%, indicating that rising liquidity has yet to translate fully into stronger real-sector economic activity.
This week, global markets will focus on key US economic releases, particularly the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, with rates expected to remain unchanged at 4.00%; Q3 2026 GDP growth, projected to slow to 3.1% QoQ from 3.2%; and September Core PCE inflation, expected to reach 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY. Markets will also monitor Initial Jobless Claims, forecast at 196,000; October Consumer Confidence, projected at 80; and the Chicago PMI, expected to reach 56. These releases will provide further insight into US economic growth, inflationary pressures, and the direction of monetary policy. In China, markets will monitor developments from the Communist Party’s Fifth Plenum, alongside cumulative industrial profit growth through September, which previously stood at 15.7% YoY. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI for October is expected to remain at 50.1, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI is projected to increase to 50.6 from 50.5. Meanwhile, the Composite PMI is expected to rise to 51.0 from 50.7. These indicators will provide insights into the sustainability of China’s manufacturing and services sector recovery.
Domestically, market attention will remain focused on foreign fund flows and JCI movements, alongside global sentiment shaped by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and key economic releases from the United States and China. Investors will also assess the implications of global economic developments for domestic financial market stability and foreign investor confidence in the Indonesian equity market.
Stockpick: ADRO, ASII, BUMI.