KSI Morning Report 02 November 2026
November 02, 2026
KIWOOM Morning Equity – 02 November 2026
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US AI SECTOR PROFIT-TAKING, RENEWED US-IRAN TENSIONS, AND INDONESIA'S 2026 RKAB REVISION
US MARKET: Wall Street closed sharply lower in Friday's trading (10/30/26), with Nasdaq Composite plunging 2.86% to 25,437.00, S&P 500 falling 1.82% to 7,580.07, and Dow Jones Industrial Average correcting 1.09% to 51,770.31. Intel was the main drag after its shares fell 28.6%, followed by AMD, which weakened 10.9%, and Nvidia, which fell 4.2%. S&P 500 technology sector recorded its largest monthly decline since March 2025, while the communication services sector experienced its deepest correction since April 2022. On a monthly basis, Nasdaq fell 6.6%, S&P 500 weakened 0.9%, while Dow Jones strengthened 1.7%.
INDONESIA: Indonesia's trade balance surplus in September 2026 is projected to shrink to US$3 billion, lower than August's realization of US$3.55 billion. BSI Chief Economist Banjaran Surya Indrastomo estimates exports will reach US$26.4 billion, or grow 7.1% YoY, while imports will increase more strongly by 15.3% YoY to US$23.4 billion. Export performance is still supported by high coal prices, while the increase in imports is driven by rising world oil prices as well as the need for raw materials and capital goods to support domestic manufacturing activity. This condition has the potential to pressure the trade surplus as import growth outpaces exports.
- In addition, the government set the national nickel ore production quota at 290 million–300 million tons for 2026 through a revision of the RKAB. However, the production quota in 2027 could be lower following oversupply conditions in the global market. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) recorded excess nickel inventory of around 750,000 tons at the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The government will consider global supply conditions and the raw material needs of domestic smelters in determining the next quota to prevent an increase in Indonesia's production from worsening the imbalance between world nickel supply and demand.
JCI closed 0.80% lower at 5,057.05 in Friday's trading (10/30/26). Based on transaction data on October 30, 2026, foreign investors recorded net sell of Rp172.43 billion in the regular market, and net sell of Rp140.27 billion across all markets, while cash and negotiated transactions recorded net buy of Rp32.16 billion. Accumulated foreign net sell on a YTD basis reached Rp126.37 trillion. The largest foreign net buying was recorded in GOTO, MDKA, BUMI, ASII, BBNI, BRMS, CPIN, DEWA, PACK, and CUAN. Meanwhile, the largest foreign net selling occurred in BBRI, TLKM, AMMN, PTBA, TINS, ANTM, ISAT, BMRI, TPIA, and DSSA. Technically, JCI continued its downtrend but rebounded after briefly touching the 4,980 support. The RSI (14) indicator fell again to 27. In a scenario of renewed volatile weakness, JCI is expected to be vulnerable to testing the nearest support at 4,980 / 4,907 again. If it breaks down, JCI could continue toward support at 4,456 (FR 161.80%). Meanwhile, in the rebound scenario, JCI has the potential to move in the resistance range of 5,116 / 5,182 / 5,249. Investors are advised to remain cautious, apply a buy on weakness strategy selectively or tend to wait for clear signal confirmation.