KSI Morning Report 03 July 2026
July 03, 2026
KIWOOM Morning Equity – 03 July 2026
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TECH ROTATION HITS NASDAQ, JCI AWAITS FURTHER CONFIRMATION
US MARKET: Wall Street closed mixed in Thursday's trading (02/07/26), with Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthening 1.1% to a record high of 52,900.07, while S&P 500 fell 0.0% to 7,478.66 and Nasdaq Composite weakened 0.8% to 25,832.67. The index's weakness was triggered by profit-taking in technology stocks, particularly the semiconductor sector and Tesla, after the very strong AI rally throughout the second quarter began to lose momentum.
INDONESIA: The government is accelerating the establishment of the Indonesian International Financial Center (PFII) through the PFII Bill by offering various incentives, not only in the form of tax exemptions but also the implementation of an international standard commercial legal system that adopts best practices from global financial hubs such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi. The PFII will operate as a special enclave with a specialized court for international business dispute resolution, as well as being supported by facilities in taxation, licensing, immigration, employment, and residency to increase foreign investment attractiveness and strengthen Indonesia's position as a regional financial hub.
- In addition, the DPR and the Government have agreed on the initial framework for the 2027 RAPBN as the basis for drafting next year's APBN. State revenue is targeted at 12.01%–12.40% of GDP, with a tax revenue ratio of 10.16%–10.50% of GDP, while the deficit is maintained in the range of 1.80%–2.40% of GDP and the debt ratio is projected at 40.31%–40.64% of GDP. The government has also set assumptions for economic growth of 5.8%–6.5%, inflation of 1.5%–3.5%, an exchange rate of Rp16,800–Rp17,500/US$, as well as the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) of US$70–US$95 per barrel, as an effort to maintain fiscal sustainability while supporting national priority programs.
JCI closed higher by 0.87% to the level of 5,744.56. Throughout trading, JCI moved in the range of 5,704.50 – 5.806.72. Foreign investors again recorded a net sell of Rp322.69 billion, bringing the cumulative year-to-date (YTD) net sell to Rp88.89 trillion. Foreign selling pressure primarily occurred in BBRI, MAPI, ASII, BRMS, and DSSA, while foreign fund inflows were recorded in BBCA, TPIA, BMRI, BRPT, and ANTM. The Rupiah weakened toward Rp17,990 per US dollar, recording a four-day losing streak due to the strengthening of the US dollar ahead of the release of Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Domestic sentiment was also pressured after Fitch Ratings warned that ongoing capital outflows and declining foreign exchange reserves have the potential to put pressure on Indonesia's credit rating. The index is still moving within a downtrend channel and remains below the EMA10 (5,853), EMA20 (5,974), and EMA50 (6,396), which shows that the short to medium-term trend is still bearish. In addition, the rebound was also held back around the 61.80% Fibonacci area (5,720), so selling pressure still has the potential to emerge as long as JCI has not been able to return above that area. From a technical perspective, as long as JCI remains below 5,762 – 5,853, the index is still at risk of continuing its decline toward support at 5,678, followed by 5,607 – 5,523 as the next support levels. Conversely, if it is able to break through 5,762 / 5,806 and continue above the EMA10 (5,853) supported by an increase in transaction volume, JCI has the opportunity to test resistance at 5,904, then 5,974, up to the psychological area of 6,000. A breakout above that area will be an early signal that selling pressure is beginning to ease and opens up opportunities for a trend change toward a more constructive consolidation phase.