KIWOOM Morning Equity – 13 July 2026 This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. AI OPTIMISM DRIVES MARKETS WHILE INDONESIA’S FISCAL STRATEGY REMAINS IN FOCUS US MARKET: Wall Street closed higher in Friday's trading (10/07/26), driven again by a rally in semiconductor and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks following SK Hynix's strong debut on Nasdaq. S&P 500 index rose 0.42% to 7,575.39, just about 0.45% below its record closing high. Nasdaq Composite strengthened 0.29% to 26,281.61, while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.29% to 52,637.01. The strengthening was led by the technology (+1.65%) and consumer discretionary (+1.46%) sectors, while PHLX semiconductor index recorded gains for the third consecutive day. INDONESIA: The realization of tax refunds in the first half of 2026 reached Rp171.2 trillion, down 31.5% YoY, primarily due to a decline in Corporate Income Tax refunds (-40% YoY) and Domestic VAT refunds (-29.7% YoY). A number of observers assess that this slowdown indicates a delay in refund disbursements to protect the government's cash flow. Although supporting fiscal liquidity in the short term, this policy has the potential to pressure corporate liquidity and increase the government's payment obligations in subsequent periods if disbursements continue to be delayed. - Meanwhile, the government raised the 2026 APBN financing outlook to Rp734.3 trillion from the initial target of Rp689.1 trillion, with realization up to the first half already reaching Rp452 trillion or 65.6% of the initial budget. The Ministry of Finance explained that this high realization was a front-loading strategy to anticipate market uncertainty early in the year. Along with the stability of the domestic bond market and the ongoing availability of the Excess Budget Balance (SAL) of around Rp255 trillion, the government has space to reduce the intensity of debt issuance in the second half. Going forward, financing remains focused on rupiah instruments (70%–75%), while global bond issuance will be conducted opportunistically according to market conditions. JCI closed higher by 0.20% to the level of 5,924.36, after moving in the range of 5,887.84 – 5,949.99. The strengthening of the index was supported by positive sentiment from rising domestic demand, reflected in national car sales in June which grew 12% YoY, marking gains for three consecutive months and driving first-half 2026 sales up 15.9% YoY, indicating that public purchasing power is starting to improve. Even so, foreign investors still recorded a net sell of Rp421.70 billion (all market), bringing the cumulative year-to-date (YTD) net sell to Rp76,58 trillion. Foreign selling pressure primarily occurred in BBRI, BBCA, TLKM, DEWA, and ASII, while domestic investors accumulated BMRI, ADRO, BRMS, UNTR, and ELSA. In the foreign exchange market, the Rupiah weakened 0.35% to Rp18,065/US$ in the spot market. This movement ended the daily strengthening trend as domestic market focus fixed on the shadow of global uncertainty risks and the dynamics of capital outflows. Technically, JCI is still moving in a bearish trend, although it is beginning to show recovery efforts after successfully holding above the EMA10 (5,897). However, the index remains below the EMA20 (5,948) and EMA50 (6,293) as well as continuing to move within a downtrend channel, so an uptrend has not been confirmed. The RSI (14) is at 46.23, showing that momentum is beginning to improve but remains in the neutral area and has not yet entered the bullish zone. As long as JCI is able to hold above the 5,900 – 5,882 area, the opportunity to continue its technical rebound remains open with the target of testing 5,948 – 6,000 (EMA20 as well as psychological resistance), followed by 6,100 – 6,220 if it successfully breaks above the upper boundary of the channel. Conversely, if it falls back below 5,900, the index risks testing support at 5,839 – 5,805 again, before heading toward the gap area around 5,744. Confirmation of a trend change becoming more positive still requires a breakout above the EMA20 supported by an increase in transaction volume as well as continued foreign investor accumulation.