KSI Morning Report 02 September 2026
September 02, 2026
KIWOOM Morning Equity – 02 September 2026
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JCI EXTENDS BULLISH TREND; STRONG FOREIGN INFLOWS OFFSET RISING OIL & US YIELDS
US MARKET: Wall Street closed lower on Tuesday's trading (09/01/26), starting September with negative sentiment after a sharp rise in oil prices and a surge in US government bond yields increased pressure on the stock market. Nasdaq Composite fell 1.03% to 26,099.77, S&P 500 weakened 0.71% to 7,631.47, while Dow Jones Industrial Average corrected 0.79% to 52,766.88. This weakness came after positive market performance throughout August, so investors are now adjusting portfolios amid rising global market volatility.
INDONESIA: Indonesia's inflation is expected to remain at a controlled level over the coming months, although food price pressure and external risks still need to be watched. Headline inflation in August 2026 rose to 3.2% YoY from 2.9% YoY in July, with monthly inflation of 0.2% and core inflation remaining moderate at 2.9% YoY. The increase mainly came from the volatile food group, which posted inflation of 4.1% YoY, mainly due to rising prices of chicken, eggs, and chili. Bank Danamon Indonesia Lead Economist Irman Faiz considers domestic inflationary pressure not yet reflecting excessive demand, so rupiah stability and external financing conditions are expected to become more important considerations for Bank Indonesia in determining monetary policy direction.
- In addition, Indonesia's trade balance is expected to still face downside risk through the end of 2026 due to strong domestic demand driving imports, while exports could potentially be pressured by slowing global demand and geopolitical uncertainty. The trade surplus for January–July 2026 reached only US$3.70 billion, sharply lower than US$23.77 billion in the same period last year. Bank Permata estimates the current account deficit could widen to 2.49% of GDP in 2026, from 0.09% in 2025, while foreign exchange reserves are projected to fall to around US$143–147 billion by year-end. On the fiscal side, tax revenue for January–August 2026 grew 24.1% YoY and is estimated to reach around Rp1,409.1 trillion, or 59.8% of the 2026 State Budget target, though there remains a shortfall risk of Rp80–140 trillion through year-end.
JCI closed up 1.14% at the 6,599.94 level on Tuesday's trading (09/01/2026), after moving in a range of 6,535.80 – 6,608.18 throughout the session and opening at the 6,538.12 level. The index's gain was supported by strong foreign fund inflows, with foreign investors booking a net buy of Rp1.76 trillion in the Regular Market. Foreign buying was mainly seen in BBRI, BBCA, BUMI, BMRI, and CUAN shares, while the largest selling pressure was recorded in KOTA, ISAT, EMAS, BRMS, and ITMG. The Rupiah moved relatively stable around Rp17,730 per US Dollar in early September, little changed from the previous session. This limited movement reflects a wait-and-see stance among market participants in responding to various signals from both domestic and global market developments. Technically, JCI managed to continue its uptrend. The RSI (14) rose again to the 64 level, indicating bullish momentum still has room to continue. As long as JCI can hold above the EMA10 in the 6,491 area, the chance of strengthening remains open to retest the 6,635 resistance and the chance of closing the gap area at the 6,733 level, with the next gap area at the 6,858 level. Conversely, should profit-taking occur, JCI could correct back toward support at 6,551 and 6,491 (EMA10) and 6,454. KIWOOM RESEARCH advises a strategy worth considering is to hold or selectively average up as long as JCI can hold above the support area, while investors need to increase caution should the index break through support.