KIWOOM Morning Equity – 14 September 2026 This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. GLOBAL INFLATION RISKS AND INDONESIA’S FISCAL CHALLENGES IN FOCUS US MARKET: Wall Street closed higher on Friday's trading (09/11/26), halting four consecutive sessions of decline after the rise in oil prices and Treasury yields began to ease. S&P 500 up 0.86%, Nasdaq 100 rose 0.96%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened 0.98%. Tech and banking stocks also strengthened, with Alphabet rising 1.5%, Amazon 1.9%, and JPMorgan 0.8%. AMD and Intel strengthened 2.5% and 2.6% respectively, while Dell surged 11.9% to an all-time high. On a weekly basis, S&P 500 fell 0.6%, Nasdaq weakened 0.7%, and Dow Jones corrected 426 points. INDONESIA: The government still faces a major challenge in achieving its 2026 tax revenue target. Through August 2026, tax revenue is estimated to reach Rp1,409.1 trillion, or only 59.8% of the 2026 State Budget target, though growing 24.1% YoY. Accordingly, around 40.2% of the target still needs to be pursued in the final four months. CITA observers consider the target too high, as the government needs an additional roughly Rp440 trillion compared to 2025 realization. In addition, the potential tax revenue shortfall is estimated to reach Rp80–140 trillion should the backlog of tax refunds continue. This condition could potentially pressure business cash flow and hinder economic activity and job creation. - In addition, business expectations for Q3 2026 macroeconomic conditions have further worsened, reflected in the Macroeconomic Conditions Expectations Index (IKM), which fell to 28 from 37 in the previous quarter, entering pessimistic territory. Business players expect more moderate economic growth following the end of seasonal factors such as Ramadan, Eid al-Fitr, and school holidays. Pressure also comes from potential rupiah weakness and rising inflation due to high global energy prices, non-subsidized fuel price adjustments, rupiah depreciation, and El Nino risk to food prices. This condition raises the potential for a pre-emptive BI-Rate hike to maintain rupiah stability and inflation expectations, while manufacturing activity entered contraction territory, with the PMI falling to 49 in August 2026. JCI closed down 0.73% at the 6,541.38 level. Throughout Friday's (09/11) trading, JCI moved in a range of 6,462.96 – 6,552.79. Foreign investors booked a net sell of Rp732.81 billion in the Regular Market. Foreign fund inflows were mainly directed through BBRI, BMRI, AADI, INCO, and PTBA, while the largest foreign selling pressure was recorded in BBCA, CUAN, CPIN, TPIA, and ADRO. In the foreign exchange market, the Rupiah weakened past the Rp17,600 per US Dollar level on Friday, posting weakness for two consecutive sessions amid the US Dollar Index maintaining its strength. On the domestic side, concerns over Indonesia's fiscal condition continued to weigh on the market. Global oil prices remaining above US$100 per barrel could potentially increase pressure on the government's budget position, given Indonesia's status as a net oil importer. - Technically, JCI again formed a bearish candle and closed at the 6,541.38 level, below the EMA10 (6,591.59) but still holding above the EMA20 (6,530.56) and EMA50 (6,424.60). This weakness was also accompanied by a breakdown from the short-term uptrend line, indicating bullish momentum is starting to weaken and correction risk is rising. The RSI (14) fell to 53.89, still above the neutral area of 50, but showing diminishing strengthening momentum. Should JCI fail to hold above the EMA20 at 6,530, the correction could potentially continue toward 6,425 (EMA50), with the next support at 6,377. Conversely, should it manage to rebound and break back through the EMA10 at 6,592, JCI has room to test 6,723, before heading toward 6,859 as the next resistance. KIWOOM RESEARCH advises investors to wait & see while monitoring JCI's ability to hold in the 6,530 – 6,425 area. Investors who have already profited are advised to apply a trailing stop or gradual profit-taking should JCI break back through that support, while buy accumulation should wait for confirmation of a rebound and a return above the EMA10 at 6,592.